The German benchmark index remains nervous in view of the ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict. What is communicated politically and what is actually believed in the markets are two different things. This discrepancy leads to caution, as investors act more defensively and avoid short-term risks until the situation becomes clearer.
Despite the smouldering uncertainty, there are obviously still a handful of optimists who continue to hold on to the hope of a timely ceasefire between the parties to the conflict.
In view of the upcoming Easter weekend, nervousness is likely to increase further. Without a clear solution to the geopolitical conflict, many investors are unlikely to want to take any unnecessary risks. The closer we get to the long weekend, the more safety thinking is likely to dominate. Nobody wants to be caught on the wrong foot by unexpected developments in a closed market phase.
DAX
Hopes for a timely end to the Iran conflict - April 7 is approaching
According to a newspaper report, US President Donald Trump is prepared to end the Iran war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing government officials, the US president is prepared to end the war even if the strategic strait remains virtually closed. Trump wants to put the Iranian navy and missile stocks out of action.
Donald Trump recently set Iran a deadline of April 7 to accept an agreement to end the war with both the United States and Israel. If not, there would be a threat of US attacks on the Iranian energy sector.
US labor market data in focus this week – „JOLTs“ and ADP data likely to provide first glimpse
Investors could be distracted from the dynamic developments in the Iran war by various economic data in the shortened trading week. This Tuesday, for example, the „JOLTs“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) will be published (16:00).
On Wednesday, investors can look forward to the ADP employment data (14:15), US retail sales (14:30) and the ISM purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector (16:00).
Economists expect job growth from the previous month – US interest rate cut fantasies clouded
The official US jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls) is expected on Friday (2:30 PM). Experts anticipate job creation of 55,000 outside of agriculture, following a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at an estimated 4.4 percent.
Given the upcoming stock market holidays (Good Friday) and (Easter Monday), DAX investors can consequently only react to the US jobs data on Tuesday.
Investors are currently not harboring hopes for an interest rate cut by the US monetary authority on April 29th. According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool,“ 97.4 percent of market participants expect a pause in interest rates, and 2.6 percent even anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike.
