On the last trading day of the week, investors in Germany are unlikely to let anything get in the way. In the USA, the transcripts of the latest Fed meeting should be of interest in the evening. However, trading will not start regularly again until Friday, after the New Year's holiday. Since the beginning of the year, the DAX has gained 22.38% just a few hours before the end of trading.
DAX
Investors hope for clues about monetary policy representatives' opinions on the interest rate course
The „FOMC Minutes“ are still on the agenda today (20:00), to which investors will consequently only be able to react on Friday. Stock market trading ends today in Frankfurt am Main at 14:00.
It will be interesting to see whether the transcripts provide an indication of the extent to which opinions on monetary policy differ. Around two weeks ago, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
There will be no trading in Frankfurt am Main on December 31 and January 1, 2026.
China data could provide important guidance for Friday trading - purchasing managers on both sides in focus on the first trading day
Economic data from the Middle Kingdom (NBS EMI) for the manufacturing and service sectors (02:30) will be worth keeping an eye on, not least at the end of the year on Wednesday.
Already on Friday and thus on the first trading day of the new year, the final purchasing managers (HCOB) for the manufacturing sector in Germany (09:55) and Europe (10:00) are on the agenda. The counterpart for the USA (S&P Global) will follow at 15:45.
Between AI euphoria, expectations of interest rate cuts and hopes for an easing of tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict
All in all, investors can look back on a thoroughly positive year on the stock markets. The performance is likely to have been fueled in particular by the fantasy in the artificial intelligence sector, hopes of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) and signs of easing in the geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
It remains to be seen to what extent investors will be lured out of their reserves at the start of the new year. Concerns about the bursting of a possible AI bubble could act as a classic sword of Damocles for the stock markets. It also remains unclear to what extent the US Federal Reserve in particular will be tempted to cut interest rates in 2026. At the most recent Fed meeting, the US monetary authority only held out the prospect of an interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point in 2026.
