In addition to the eagerly awaited publication of new US inflation data, investors are likely to focus on the European Central Bank's (ECB) key interest rate decision. However, after the latest US jobs data on Tuesday, the buying mood on the German stock market is likely to remain limited. It remains to be seen whether investors will be tempted out of their shells before the Christmas holidays.
DAX
Hoped-for tailwind from US labor market reports fails to materialize
In October, non-farm payrolls in the United States fell by 105,000 jobs. In November, the job market recorded an increase of 64,000 jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6 percent in November, which is also the highest level in four years. The rate for the month of October was not published on Tuesday afternoon.
According to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, 19.9% of market participants currently expect a further rate hike of a quarter of a percentage point at the first meeting of the new year (January 28, 2026), compared with a 24.4% probability from a day ago. After the interest rate hike a week ago, the Fed could tend to hold its feet still for the time being, which should curb the general risk mood.
Investors must process ifo business climate index
Already this morning, investors had to digest new data on the widely observed ifo business climate index. The mood in the German economy deteriorated once again. In December, the index fell by 0.4 points to 87.6 points. The Munich-based institute surveys around 9,000 managers every month. A slight increase was expected in advance.
ECB could leave key interest rate unchanged - monetary policy stimulus from Christine Lagarde possible
The ECB's key interest rate is expected to be announced on Thursday at 14:15. The subsequent press conference with Christine Lagarde will come into focus from 14:45.
It is less expected that the ECB will turn the interest rate screws. The so-called deposit rate currently stands at 2.0 percent.
US inflation data for November expected on Thursday afternoon
Fresh US consumer price data is expected in between, i.e. at 14:30. However, the figures in question are the November values. Due to the US budget dispute, the data for October could not be collected retrospectively.
The core rate of US inflation is also expected, which is regarded by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not least as a guideline for assessing inflation.
In September, consumer prices stood at 3.0%, well above the medium-term target of 2.0%. Despite the stubborn inflation, the Fed decided last Wednesday to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The monetary authorities referred to the increasing cracks in the labor market.
Focus on consumer sentiment data on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday
On Friday, new GfK consumer sentiment data will be published in Germany (08:00).
The final consumer sentiment data for the USA (Uni Michigan) will round off the trading week at 16:00.
