The past few trading days were once again characterized by monetary policy developments and hopes for signs of easing in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
However, the stock exchange doors on Wall Street remained closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, meaning that there is also likely to be little impetus today, Friday, especially as trading in the USA only lasts half a day.
DAX
Investors hope for an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict
At the beginning of the week, the prospect of a rapprochement in the negotiations surrounding Ukraine was a recurring topic of conversation. According to Ukrainian sources, the USA and Ukraine have reached agreement on the most important issues relating to the US peace plan. Russia wants to discuss the draft in the coming week, according to reports.
Whether there will be an actual end to the geopolitical conflict remains to be seen. However, the hope of an end to the war could tend to increase risk appetite.
After comments by Fed representatives: US interest rate cut fantasies gain strong momentum
Interestingly, the chance of a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point at the Fed's final meeting is back at 84.7%, up from 71% a week ago, according to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“. The chance of a rate pause is 15.3 percent.
Statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller are likely to have been a decisive factor in the interest rate cut fantasies picking up speed again. According to Reuters, Waller told Fox Business on Monday that he wanted to push for a rate cut at the December meeting.
A week ago today, John Williams of the New York central bank had already signaled room for a further downward adjustment.
Ifo Index: Economic recovery not in sight
The ifo business climate index, which was widely observed, was published on Monday and surprisingly fell from 88.4 points in October to 88.1 points in November. After companies had recently taken a somewhat more optimistic view of their situation, they were more skeptical about the outlook than in the previous month. A slight increase was expected in advance.
In the middle of the week, one day before „Thanksgiving“, US new orders for durable goods were also published, which rose more strongly than expected compared to the previous month (0.3%), but remained significantly below the previous month's level (3.0%).
„Thanksgiving“ in the USA: Wall Street remained closed
Thursday's trading day in Germany was dominated by the GfK consumer confidence survey due to the US stock market holiday. At -23.2 points, consumer sentiment for the month of December was as high as economists had expected in advance. There was a slight improvement thanks to an increase in the propensity to buy and a repeated decline in the propensity to save.
Finally, in the afternoon, the preliminary inflation data for the Federal Republic of Germany will be published (14:00).
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