After a turbulent trading week, investors should be hoping for stabilization. However, concerns about a bursting of the AI bubble and a lack of further US interest rate cuts could continue to flare up.
The focus is likely to be on important US economic data, which has not been published in recent weeks due to the shutdown. It should be noted that the US stock markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.
After last week's correction - investors hope for stabilization
The ambitious valuations in the AI sector could repeatedly give rise to doubts about sustainability, which could act as a potential negative factor. The fear of overvaluation and the associated concerns about possible panic selling could make investors nervous, which could have a contagion effect on overall stock market sentiment.
In addition, the recent end of the US government shutdown may not be all good news for investors. In view of the flood of data that is now expected, there is still the uncertainty that the fantasies of interest rate cuts could be dampened again and again. In addition, the US Federal Reserve is also likely to lack an appropriate data basis, which could increase uncertainty about future decisions.
Producer prices and retail sales in focus on Tuesday - investors hope for economic clues
From the perspective of the economic data calendar, Tuesday should be exciting with new US producer prices and the publication of US retail sales (14:30). However, these figures are only for September, so their actual relevance is likely to be limited.
Numerous US economic data expected on Wednesday
A whole host of economic data is also on the agenda for Wednesday. At 2:30 pm, new orders for durable goods and the core rate for personal consumption expenditures are expected to provide important inflation signals.
In the evening (20:00), the so-called „Beige Book“ of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could provide important economic indications about the US economic situation.
Stock market doors remain closed on Wall Street on Thursday due to „Thanksgiving“ - No significant impulse generators expected on Friday either
While no important economic data is expected on Thursday due to the holiday, Friday will also see fewer relevant potential sources of impetus. It is possible that a large number of traders could already take their leave for an extended weekend on Wednesday evening after the US stock market closes.
„Fed Watch Tool“ signals increased chance of rate cut at December meeting
In addition, according to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, the chance of a rate cut of 25 basis points is 77.5%, up from 42.4% a week ago. The probability of a rate pause is 22.5 percent. The current interest rate range is 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated in a speech in Santiago (Chile) on Friday that he saw scope for a further interest rate cut in the short term.
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