Following the absence of official US labor market data in the wake of the ongoing budget dispute, uncertainty about the future shape of monetary policy in the United States could persist. Investors on the other side of the Atlantic are therefore likely to scrutinize the relevant economic data all the more closely.
The new trading week is likely to focus in particular on the "FOMC Minutes", which investors should monitor for monetary policy indications.
Worries about budget dispute in the USA - delay in further economic data conceivable
Concerns about the effects of the partial government shutdown in the United States are likely to continue to drive market participants, even if they have tried to remain calm in recent trading days. As no agreement was reached between the Democrats and Republicans last Tuesday, economic data that had actually been planned could still be delayed.
On Friday, for example, the non-farm payrolls were not published. According to an estimate by the Fed's Chicago branch, the unemployment rate in September is likely to have leveled off at the previous month's figure of 4.3%. Austan Goolsbee, head of the Chicago Fed, signaled that the Fed would have to look for alternative data if government figures on the labour market, inflation, etc. were not published.
How long the government shutdown in the United States will last is questionable. The longest shutdown to date occurred between 2018 and 2019, when government operations came to a standstill for over five weeks.
Numerous speeches by various Fed representatives in focus
Even if this week's economic data calendar is relatively manageable, there could still be some important impulses.
On Tuesday, scheduled speeches by Fed member Raphael Bostic (4:00 p.m.), Michelle Bowman (4:05 p.m.), Stephen Miran (4:30 p.m.) and Neel Kashkari (5:30 p.m.) should be noted.
Fed minutes expected on Wednesday evening - Monetary policy hints possible
Late Wednesday evening (20:00), investors can look forward to the transcripts of the Fed's latest meeting. In September, the US monetary authority lowered interest rates for the first time and adjusted the key interest rate level by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00 to 4.25 percent. Market participants are likely to expect the minutes to provide important information on monetary policy.
Jerome Powell is expected to appear before the public on Thursday
On Thursday, a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (14:30) is likely to attract attention. Michelle Bowman (14:45) and Michael Barr (18:45) are also expected.
Consumer confidence (preliminary) from the University of Michigan rounds off the trading week from the perspective of the economic calendar (16:00).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
