Hopes of interest rate cuts in the US have increasingly driven market participants in recent days. In addition, investors were repeatedly confronted with economic data in a comparatively manageable trading week from an economic calendar perspective, especially as concerns about the Fed's independence are likely to persist. Investors on both sides of the Atlantic are eagerly awaiting the publication of US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) this afternoon.
DAX
Source: TradingView
After dismissal of Fed governor - concerns about Fed independence remain
Following Donald Trump's recent announcement about the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve remain. Trump had cited alleged irregularities in real estate loans as the reason for this step. Cook, however, wanted to defend herself against this, it was said.
ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing weakens - "JOLTs" miss expectations
After Wall Street remained closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, trading in Germany only really picked up on Tuesday.
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector was published in the afternoon. At 48.7 points, however, it remained below expectations (48.7 points) after 48 points in the previous month.
However, the so-called "JOLTs" on Wednesday produced fewer jobs overall (7.181 million) than expected (7.4 million), previously: (7.357 million).
The counterpart to the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector exceeded expectations on Thursday with 52 points (51 points). The previous month, the index had stood at 50.1 points.
ADP employment data weak - investors hope for weak US jobs data
The first taste of today's US jobs data was already released on Thursday.
The ADP employment data provided fresh impetus for existing US interest rate cut fantasies. According to a survey, 54,000 new jobs were created in the US private sector in August, after 106,000 in July (revised).
The Non-Farm Payrolls should provide information on the development of the US job market today. In addition to the official labor market data, the unemployment rate and the development of average hourly wages are likely to be of interest (14:30).
According to experts, a total of 75,000 new jobs may have been created in the USA outside of agriculture last month, slightly more than in July (73,000). However, the unemployment rate, which is calculated separately, could rise to 4.3% after 4.2% in the previous month.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to meet for the next time on September 17, 2025 to decide on future monetary policy. The CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" now estimates the chance of a rate cut at 99.4%, up from 86.4% a week ago. The chance of an interest rate pause is currently estimated at 0.6 percent.
Despite the heightened interest rate cut fantasy, investors should bear in mind that an actual interest rate cut is not a foregone conclusion.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
