In the new trading week, investors are likely to focus in particular on the official US labor market report on Friday. Developments in the ranks of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could also be a topic of conversation. Concerns regarding the independence of the monetary authority are likely to weigh on risk appetite. It is also important to keep an eye on Trump's tariff policy.
After the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook - concerns about the Fed's independence remain
After US President Donald Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, investors on both sides of the Atlantic continue to worry about the independence of the monetary watchdog. However, Cook wants to prevent her dismissal with a lawsuit, according to reports. Trump had accused her of mortgage fraud.
Monetary policy in the US is likely to remain one of the key issues. On September 17, the Fed will meet as scheduled to decide on the future shape of its policy. The probability of an interest rate cut of 25 basis points is currently 89.7%, according to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool".
"JOLTs" and ADP employment data should provide first foretaste of NFPs
From the perspective of the economic calendar, things are likely to get exciting on Tuesday with the ISM Purchasing Managers for the manufacturing sector (16:00).
The "JOLTs" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) refer to the vacancies that are open on the last working day of the month. The publication is scheduled for Wednesday (16:00).
The ADP employment data on Thursday (14:15) should give a first taste of the so-called non-farm payrolls.
Later in the day, the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector will be published (16:00).
US jobs report could decide the weal and woe - Further deterioration in the labor market conceivable
Friday is likely to be dominated by the publication of the US jobs report (14:30). In addition to the labor market figures, it is important to keep an eye on the development of the unemployment rate and average hourly wages.
The US labor market report is likely to be of great interest as it was strangely weak at the beginning of last month. It remains to be seen whether this will put a damper on general interest rate cut fantasies.
Economists expect an increase in non-farm jobs of 78,000 units, following 73,000 new jobs in the previous month.
In this context, the separately calculated unemployment rate is likely to be 4.3%, compared to 4.2% in the previous month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
