The new trading week will focus in particular on fresh US consumer price data, which could provide monetary policy signals. Developments in the trade dispute are also likely to keep investors on edge. For example, Trump announced tariffs on EU imports of 30% over the weekend. Last but not least, the eagerly awaited US reporting season could provide fresh impetus and thus additional momentum.
Trade dispute picks up speed again - USA raises prospect of punitive tariffs of 30 percent on EU imports
US President Donald Trump announced punitive tariffs of 30 percent on imports from the EU from August 1 via his social platform last Saturday.
"We have discussed our trade relationship with the European Union for years and have come to the conclusion that we need to move away from these long-term, large and persistent trade deficits that have been created by their tariff and non-tariff measures and trade barriers," Trump said. "Our relationship, unfortunately, has been far from reciprocal."
According to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, they are ready to work towards an agreement by August 1.
Chinese economic data could provide important guidance - focus on US price data on Tuesday and Wednesday
In the night from Monday to Tuesday, investors should first keep an eye on important economic data from China (04:00).
Tuesday afternoon is likely to be dominated by the publication of new US inflation data (14:30). Consumer prices, including energy and food, are expected to have risen by 2.6% year-on-year in June, compared to 2.4% in May.
US producer prices could also provide important impetus on Wednesday (14:30). Investors are likely to scan said data for monetary policy clues. Hopes are high that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will turn the interest rate screws downwards at the next but one scheduled meeting on September 17, 2025. The CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool" currently estimates the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points at 57.4%. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 4.25 to 4.50 percent.
In the evening, investors can also look forward to the so-called "Beige Book" (20:00), which reports on the current US economic situation.
US retail sales and consumer confidence (Uni Michigan) round off the trading week
Thursday's US retail sales and Friday's preliminary consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan (16:00) could also provide important impetus.
Reporting season begins in the United States - stimulus possible at any time
Investors are also likely to be eagerly awaiting the start of the reporting season in the United States. On Tuesday, for example, the figures from BlackRock (ISIN: US09247X1019), Citigroup (ISIN: US1729674242), JPMorgan (ISIN: US46625H1005) and Wells Fargo (ISIN: US9497461015) are expected. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the figures from Bank of America (ISIN: US0605051046), Goldman Sachs (ISIN: US38141G1040) and Morgan Stanley (ISIN: US6174464486) and on Thursday from PepsiCo (ISIN: US7134481081) and Netflix (ISIN: US64110L1061).
Market participants should therefore always be prepared for the possibility of important impulses.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
