In the first trading days of the new year, investors are likely to continue to take it easy, as they do between the years. Nevertheless, important economic data from China and the USA will provide the first potential impetus. Overall, in addition to Donald Trump's official inauguration, investors are likely to be eagerly awaiting the new elections in Germany on February 23, which should set the course for the new year.
DAX Chart
Source: TradingView
China data disappoint - investors in China hope for further government support measures
Negative data initially came from China at the start of the year. At 50.50 points, the so-called Caixin PMI production index was significantly weaker than previously expected (51.70 points), following a total of 51.50 points in the previous month.
There had already been mixed signals from China at the start of the week. While the PMI index for the non-manufacturing sector rose significantly, the PMI production index fell to 50.10 points, which is only just above the expansion threshold of 50 points.
Investors hope that the Chinese government will take further measures to support the domestic economy in 2025.
The National People's Congress will also take place in March, at which growth targets, among other things, should be defined. In addition to the smouldering real estate crisis, China is also likely to suffer from the expected protectionist Trump policy. The Republican had announced punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, for example.
Weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits and ISM data in focus
On the US side, the weekly initial jobless claims (14:30) will be in focus in the afternoon, which should also attract attention in Frankfurt am Main. The development of the jobs market is of great importance as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) uses it as a basis for its interest rate decisions, among other things.
The official US labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls) for the past month will be published next Friday.
In the shortened trading week, the ISM index for the manufacturing industry will last but not least come into focus on Friday (16:00).
Overall, many traders may continue to stay away from the stock markets due to the recent holidays. It is possible that market activity will not pick up again until next Monday in the new year.
