The prospect of falling key interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic could further increase the attractiveness of shares compared to fixed-interest investments. The economic stimulus packages promised by the Chinese government are also likely to remain a topic of discussion.
Investors are now eagerly awaiting the ECB meeting on Thursday. The ongoing reporting season is also likely to provide impetus from the US.
DAX Chart
Source: Tradingview
Focus on Christine Lagarde's speech - investors hope for interest rate cut by ECB on Thursday
Even if this week's economic data calendar is manageable overall, investors should still keep an eye on a few potential sources of momentum.
Investors will focus on a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde this evening (21:40).
The European Central Bank's (ECB) key interest rate decision could decide the weal and woe of the stock market week on Thursday. The new key interest rate is expected to be announced at 14:15. Half an hour later, the press conference is on the agenda. As an exception, the meeting will take place in Slovenia this time.
The ECB deposit rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points to a level of 3.5%. An interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point is also expected at the upcoming December meeting (12.12.2024).
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently emphasized that the ECB would have to step up the pace of interest rate cuts if the economic outlook continued to deteriorate.
US data could provide monetary policy clues - China stimuli as price driver
US retail sales and the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are also likely to be important (14:30).
Important Chinese data are on the agenda in the night from Thursday to Friday (04:00). In addition to gross domestic product (GDP), new data on industrial production and retail trade will be published. This economic data could provide important clues as to the future shape of US monetary policy. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for November 7.
It became public at the beginning of the week that China was considering issuing special government bonds in order to finance the announced economic stimulus packages. The aim is to raise an amount of six trillion yuan (774 billion euros) within three years. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan had already announced last weekend that he wanted to "significantly increase" debt. At the end of September, China announced the largest economic stimulus program for the domestic economy since the coronavirus pandemic.
Focus on major US banks and consumer goods manufacturers
The reporting season in the US is also likely to provide additional important impetus. On Thursday, the focus will be on figures from Morgan Stanley and Netflix. American Express and Procter & Gamble will report on Friday. These figures could also have an impact on stock market activity in Germany.
