In the new trading week, investors are expecting comparatively little impetus from the economic data calendar. Nevertheless, new US price data shortly before the weekend is likely to attract particular attention. In addition to the ongoing US reporting season, developments in the battle for the White House could also keep investors busy.
US presidential election likely to remain a topic on the global financial markets
As in the past five trading days, the US presidential election is likely to cast its shadow ahead. Even though the elections are not due to take place until November 4, 2024, the election campaign may have established itself as one of the central themes on the market, at the latest since the attack on Donald Trump. Joe Biden announced late on Sunday evening that he would be dropping out of the race for the White House.
It was also recently announced that J.D. Vance will run as the Republican candidate. Vance is considered a so-called "hardliner" and is likely to welcome a protectionist policy on the part of the USA. In this context, investors fear an "America First strategy" and thus economic uncertainties, such as a deterioration in trade relations between the United States and China.
Purchasing managers in focus - US economic data could provide monetary policy impetus
As less relevant economic data will be published on Monday and Tuesday, investors should focus on possible stimuli from S&P Global purchasing managers in the middle of the week (15:45).
As in previous weeks, speeches by various Fed representatives are likely to attract interest. Governor Michelle Bowman will be speaking late Wednesday evening (22:05).
The trend in new orders for durable goods will be examined on Thursday at 14:30. Compared to the previous month, orders may have risen by 0.3%, after 0.1% in May. As this data is linked to higher spending, it can provide an indication of the health of the US economy.
The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is also likely to be of interest. Compared to the previous quarter, economists expect an increase of 2.0%, after 1.4% in Q1.
PCE price index in focus on Friday - Alphabet and Tesla present their quarterly figures
The publication of the so-called PCE price index (core rate), which will be published on Friday at 14:30, is likely to be the highlight of the week.
The final consumer sentiment data (Michigan) will round off the trading week at 16:00.
A veritable flood of quarterly figures is likely to provide plenty of impetus. For example, Coca-Cola, Alphabet and Tesla will report on Tuesday, and IBM and Ford in the middle of the week.
