In recent trading days, investors focused in particular on developments in the US bond market. The US Department of the Treasury had announced an increase in buybacks of long-term bonds. At the same time, the war with Iran repeatedly caused market momentum. A resolution, and thus lasting diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, still does not appear to be in sight. US President Donald Trump had announced on Truth Social that he would hit Iran with massive economic sanctions.
DAX chart on a monthly basis
ZEW Index stronger than expected
The ZEW index rose significantly more than expected in August to 34.2 points (compared to 30 points), up from 26.3 units in the previous month, as was announced on Tuesday. „The positive trend in expectations is continuing in August, likely thanks to good corporate quarterly results and the recently high export level,“ said ZEW President Achim Wambach regarding the survey results.
Fed minutes provide few impulses – US monetary policy remains a topic
The Fed minutes provided no major impetus late Wednesday evening. However, three central bank officials had argued for a 25-basis-point increase in the key interest rate level. In addition to Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Lorie Logan (Dallas) favored a more restrictive course. The U.S. central bank official had left the key interest rate level at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent at the end of July. In addition, the minutes noted that some participants considered tightening monetary policy necessary should inflation not ease further.
Initial US jobless claims came in slightly lower at 206,000 than economists had anticipated beforehand (210,000), compared to 212,000 the previous week. The CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“ indicates... The data in question was published on Thursday afternoon. According to the CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool," 65.4 percent of market participants currently expect that there could be a pause in interest rate hikes on September 16, at the next scheduled Fed central bank meeting. 34.6 percent of investors are betting on a 25 basis point interest rate hike.
Purchasing Managers' Indices (S&P Global) on both sides of the Atlantic in focus
This Friday, last but not least, various Purchasing Managers„ Indices (S&P Global) for the services, manufacturing, and composite sectors are also in focus. For Germany, the data for the composite and services sectors came in below expectations of 51.3 and 50.1 points, at 51 and 48.5 points, respectively. The manufacturing sector performed significantly better than expected at 54.1 points (52 points).
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
30-year US Treasury bonds
