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Dow Jones forecast & analysis: Best day in 2024

Ein Börsenchart, der den Dow Jones Industrial Average Index über einen Zeitraum von einem Jahr zeigt, mit Candlestick-Mustern, Volumenbalken am unteren Ende und verschiedenen gleitenden Durchschnitten. Dieser automatisch gespeicherte Entwurf liefert wertvolle Erkenntnisse für strategische Anlageentscheidungen.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

With a closing price of 38,686 points and a rise of 572 points or 1.5 % compared to the previous day, the Dow Jones staged an impressive comeback in the final hours of trading on Friday evening. After the Dow had mainly been characterized by relative weakness in the previous days, the index achieved its best trading day of the current year.

PCE core rate below expectations

On Friday, the focus was on PCE data (private consumer spending) from the US, which is considered an important inflation indicator. At 0.2%, the core PCE rate on a monthly basis was slightly below expectations of 0.3%. On an annual basis, the data was in line with expectations. All in all, the PCE data was interpreted positively by the market, as it confirmed hopes and expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. Although the Dow Jones remained stable or rose moderately throughout the trading day, the strong price rally only took place in the last hour of trading.

Support zone defended

The following daily chart shows that the upward movement in the Dow Jones on Friday was not only the strongest price increase of the current year, but also that the upward volume bar was the largest since December 2023. Buying under such high volume is usually a very positive signal.

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones daily chart

The lower Bollinger Band was not breached and the support area at around 37,800 points offers additional support. The daily EMA 200 (red) can currently be seen as a “line in the sand”, which is likely to run into the aforementioned support area in the coming days. As long as the EMA 200 holds, the upward trend is likely to continue. Falling below the EMA 200, on the other hand, would significantly cloud the chart picture.

As can be seen on the weekly chart, the Weekly EMA 20 (purple) was also defended with the rally on Friday, which is another positive signal. The weekly EMA 20 has not been breached since the start of the rally in November.

Dow Jones weekly chart

Dow Jones weekly chart

Transport index still treading water

An analysis of the Dow Jones should also include a look at the transportation index. According to classic Dow theory, signals must occur in both indices for a trend or bull market to be considered confirmed. However, unlike its big brother, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has not yet reached any new highs in the current year. The relationship line (Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by Dow Jones Transportation Average) continues to signal a downward trend.

Dow Jones Transportindex

Dow Jones Transportation Index weekly chart

However, the relative weakness of the transportation index has apparently been of little concern to the broad market over the past 12 months. The other major share indices, more specifically the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, have already reached several annual highs and all-time highs in 2024. In addition, the Russell 2000 is in an upward trend, although it is not yet shining with relative strength. All in all, the bull market is therefore still fully intact. Nevertheless, the transportation index should continue to be monitored closely. Should relative weakness develop again, this could weigh on the broad market. A breakout to new highs, on the other hand, would provide another important confirming bullish signal.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Datum: 03.06.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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