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Nasdaq 100 forecast & analysis: Relative strength is back

A Nasdaq 100 Index price chart shows weekly data with candles, Bollinger bands, moving averages, volume bars and RSI. Key points are marked with price levels and trend lines. This automatically saved design clearly captures important market movements.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

After the turbulent first few days of trading in August, which at times triggered panic on the stock markets, the situation has now stabilized considerably. Both sentiment and the technical chart picture now give reason to hope that prices will continue to rise. However, the Nasdaq 100 has already risen by 12 % within two weeks since its low on August 5, so a short-term setback would not be surprising.

Chart classification

As you can see on the following weekly chart, no major damage was done in technical terms. On August 5, the market initially went downhill rapidly, but the recovery followed just as quickly. The sequence of rising highs and rising lows was not violated and the upward trend is therefore still fully intact. The correction ended exactly at the upward trend line in combination with the weekly EMA 50 (green).

Nasdaq 100 Index Wochenchart

In the meantime, the old support area at 18,400 points has also been recaptured, as has the weekly EMA 20. On the daily chart (below) you can see that the index was also able to rise above all important moving averages on a daily basis. Although the EMA 200 (red) was briefly breached at the opening price on August 5, the Nasdaq 100 also closed above the 200 EMA on this day and was thus able to defend it.

Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart

After the rapid upward movement of the last two weeks, it is not impossible that the Nasdaq 100 will directly tackle the all-time highs, but it appears to be a little overstretched on the upside, at least in the short term. In addition, the next resistance levels are at 19,500 points and around 20,000 points. A short-term setback would therefore not be unlikely and would also open up the possibility of renewed bullish positioning.

Should the Nasdaq 100 correct a few points this week, the next area of support would be the daily EMA 20 (purple) and the daily EMA 50 (green) at around 19,100 points. There is also another horizontal support area at around 18,800 points.

Market breadth confirms upward trend

An analysis of the most important market breadth indicators confirms that we are currently still seeing an apparently healthy bull market.

  • The Advance Decline Line has already reached a new high.
  • On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), there are more stocks making new 52-week highs than stocks making new 52-week lows.
  • In the Nasdaq 100, 67 % of all stocks are above the SMA 200.
  • On the NYSE, 67 % of all shares are also above the SMA 200.

Technology sector leads the way

When analyzing the various market sectors, it can be seen that the offensive sectors led the way in the past two weeks, while the defensive sectors also rose but performed somewhat weaker. In the previous weeks, the picture was exactly the opposite: the offensive sectors were comparatively weak, while the defensive sectors showed relative strength. A typical pattern for a correction. The renewed bullish sector rotation is a signal of growing confidence and risk appetite among investors.

The technology sector has been by far the strongest market sector in the last two weeks. This can also be seen by looking at the ratio chart between the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, which you can display by dividing the Nasdaq 100 by the S&P 500, or as in the following chart: QQQ:SPY.

Relation chart QQQ:SPY (Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500)

The relationship line rose until July 10, exactly the day on which the Nasdaq 100 reached its last all-time high and subsequently initiated the correction. The S&P 500 followed a few days later. Since August 8, we have seen a rising relationship line again, signaling an outperformance of the Nasdaq 100.

Seasonality advises caution in September

One factor that should be taken into account, however, is seasonality. In late summer, the stock markets tend to be susceptible to a correction. After February, September was the second weakest month for the Nasdaq 100 in the last 20 years. The technology index only managed to rise 47 % of the time. However, October and especially November are again characterized by seasonal strength. A seasonal low is often formed in October, which can signal the start of a rally into December. Bullish signals after a possible correction in September can therefore offer a good opportunity for long trades in the Nasdaq 100 or in technology stocks.

Percentage of months with rising prices in the Nasdaq 100 (last 20 years)

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 19.08.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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