Your Broker for worldwide trading

Dow Jones consolidates after record high

Line chart showing the price movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from August 2020 to December 2021, highlighting the periods when the index consolidates and reaches the record high, with multiple moving averages and volume bars below.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

After the Dow Jones reached a new all-time high in the week before last and peaked at 48,887 points, last week was comparatively quiet. Over the week as a whole, the Dow fell by 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ended the week with moderate gains thanks to the rally on Friday. At a macro level, the focus was on inflation and labor market data in particular.

Unexpectedly mild inflation provides relief

The Fed has already cut the key interest rate three times in 2025 by 25 basis points each time (0.75 percentage points in total) and is likely to take a break for the time being after the most recent rate cut in December. For interest rate policy in 2026, inflation data will remain the decisive factor in determining whether further cuts are possible or whether the Fed will remain at the current level for longer.

The latest CPI (consumer price index) report for November was published on Thursday. Inflation was surprisingly weak: 

  • The annual inflation rate amounted to just 2.7 % and was therefore well below the forecast of around 3.1 %.
  • Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also fell to 2.6 %, marking the lowest level since spring 2021. 

Even if the data is still somewhat distorted by special effects following the 43-day government shutdown, the CPI report provided relief. The figures confirmed that the disinflationary trend is gaining momentum, which makes further interest rate cuts likely in 2026 and should generally provide a tailwind for the stock market.

Signs of weakness on the labor market

In addition to the inflation data, the US labor market was also in the spotlight last week, albeit with less encouraging news. The labor market reports for October and November published retrospectively on Tuesday showed a significant dip: only 64,000 new jobs were created in October, and there was even a decline of 105,000 jobs in October. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.4 % to 4.6 %, reaching its highest level for over four years.

The combination of low job growth and more unemployed signals a cooling of the long robust labor market. Even if special effects from the government shutdown (which may have distorted some figures) are taken into account, the data signal a slowdown in economic momentum. Wage growth was also more moderate and, at an annual rate of just over 3 %, was the lowest since 2021.

Dow Jones Transportation Index impressively strong

In chart terms, the Dow Jones remains clearly in bull mode. After the all-time highs of December 11 and 12, the Dow corrected a few points, but is still trading above the EMA 20.

Line chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and trading volume from July 2020 to December 2021, with moving averages, trend lines, support/resistance zones and auto-saved draft details highlighted.
Dow Jones daily chart

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been particularly strong recently. Although the transportation index has not yet risen to a new all-time high, it has been able to build up significant relative strength compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the beginning of November. This can be seen from the relationship line below the chart (below). Here, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is divided by the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

A stock chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average shows the price movements, the volume, the moving averages, the Bollinger Bands and a ratio line for comparison with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as an automatically saved draft.
Dow Jones Transportation Index Daily Chart

The fact that the transportation index is showing relative strength is a positive sign: Transportation stocks are considered to be particularly sensitive to the economy. If they outperform the Dow (industrial index), this indicates robust demand and an active flow of goods. At the same time, the outperformance acts as a confirmation of the upward trend in the market as a whole and shows that the bull market is broad-based.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 22.12.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options