Your Broker for worldwide trading

Buying panic drives Dow Jones to an all-time high

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

Over the past two trading weeks, sentiment in the stock markets has turned significantly. The uncertainty of the previous weeks seems to have vanished in an instant, leading to a veritable buying panic and driving the Dow Jones to new all-time highs.

The fundamental drivers behind the rally

The most important relaxation factor in recent days came from the Middle East. In early August, President Trump called off a planned attack on Iran. At the same time, Iran and Oman are negotiating a framework for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump hinted at an imminent reopening. For the stock markets, what matters most is the price of oil. After surging to over 93 USD at the end of July, the price of WTI crude oil has dropped significantly over the past two weeks and is currently trading at around 77 USD per barrel. The inflation pressure imported via energy costs, which had weighed on the markets since spring, thus disappeared from prices. However, a real deal does not exist to this day.

WTI Daily Chart

The second driver is monetary policy. On July 29, the FOMC kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, albeit with three dissenting votes in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. However, last Friday's employment report somewhat defused this discussion: instead of the expected 83,000 new jobs, the US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, and May and Jones were also revised downward by a cumulative 103,000 jobs. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the priced-in probability of a September rate hike subsequently fell from around 67 percent on July 31 to 44 percent.

CME FedWatch Tool

The stock markets are currently receiving further tailwind from the earnings season. This is turning out to be exceptionally strong once again. Of the 88 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported for the second quarter so far, 86 percent beat earnings estimates. That is the highest rate since the second quarter of 2021. In total, the results are 29.2 percent above expectations, the highest figure since FactSet began tracking data in 2008. However, Alphabet and Amazon alone are responsible for about two-thirds of this record figure. If you exclude these two companies, earnings are only 10.9 percent above expectations instead of 29.2 percent. Within the Dow itself, Caterpillar impressed with strong figures and a raised sales forecast.

Added to this is the recovery of semiconductor stocks, which had suffered in July from doubts about the sustainability of AI investments. The result was a very strong and broad upward movement: on August 4, the Dow closed above 54,000 points for the first time, and on August 5, the third all-time high in three days was reached, with a closing price of 54,349 points.

The most important event of the new week is August 12 with the US consumer prices for the month of July. If the decline in inflation is confirmed, the rally will have further tailwinds. If the figure disappoints, the rate hike debate will be right back on the agenda.

Technical outlook for the Dow Jones

On July 29 and 30, the Dow Jones initially corrected again down to the level of the 50-day EMA in the area of 51,500 points. Starting from this horizontal support zone, an increase of around six percent followed, running up to 54,744 points without a breather. The upward trend was thus confirmed once again. Another positive aspect is that the rally and the breakout took place on increased volume, which gives the signal additional weight.

Dow Jones daily chart

A potential warning sign to watch closely over the coming weeks can be seen by looking at the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In a healthy bull market, the signals from both indices should confirm each other. However, the transport index has shown some relative weakness in recent days.

However, there was a parabolic rally here in March and April, which is why an extended consolidation does not yet cause any major concerns as long as the other major US indices confirm the upward trend.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 08/10/2026

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options