There is still no talk of carefree summer optimism in the markets. The stock market environment remains rough, given the Middle East conflict, growing doubts about AI, and monetary policy uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran are fueling concerns about new burdens for the global economy, while investors are also increasingly questioning the high valuations of many AI companies. Although stock markets have now developed a certain resilience to the constant barrage of crises in the Middle East, a sustained escalation could dampen investors' risk appetite at any time.
In addition to developments in the Middle East, investors focused on the ECB's monetary policy decision and the earnings season on both sides of the Atlantic.
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Iran conflict continues to concern investors: uncertainty over rising energy prices
In recent days, the Iran conflict has also occupied investors around the globe. According to its own statements, the US military has attacked military targets in Iran for the 13th consecutive night. The associated concerns about continued attacks or an escalation of the military escalation are likely to negatively impact risk appetite.
ZEW Index much better than expected - ECB with rate pause
On Tuesday, the ZEW Index significantly surpassed prior expectations of 18 points with 26.3 points, up from 10.5 points in the previous month. The reform package by the Federal Republic likely boosted expectations.
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the so-called deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25 percent on Thursday. The decision to pause was unanimous within the ECB's ranks. At the same time, however, the monetary guardian could once again turn the screws upwards at the September meeting, thus defending itself against persistently high inflation in view of the Iran war and the associated rising energy prices.
GfK Consumer Climate below expectations - Purchasing managers (S&P Global) better than expected
This Friday morning, new data on the GfK consumer climate was also published, which at minus 29.6 points could not exceed expectations of minus 28.5 units, compared to minus 29.3 units previously.
Initial estimates for the German and European Purchasing Managers (S&P Global) for manufacturing, services, and overall were all better than expected. The counterparts for the US side are scheduled finally at 3:45 PM, rounding off the trading week from an economic calendar perspective.
Reporting season on both sides of the Atlantic continues to gain momentum.
In recent days, in addition to numerous US heavyweights, the first German blue-chip companies also presented their results for the past fiscal quarter. In the reporting season, American Express (ISIN: US0258161092) numbers are still in focus in the USA today.
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