Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic are increasingly overshadowed by the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. The IPO, scheduled for June 12, 2026, could become the first major stress test for the AI rally. The placement is likely to serve as a benchmark for how much venture capital can still be mobilized after years of AI and tech rallies. Investors may increasingly reconsider existing positions, reallocate venture capital, and hold back additional liquidity in the coming trading days.
At the same time, the environment remains challenging. Amidst geopolitical tensions and uncertainties about the further course of central banks, many investors in this country lack a reliable compass. This Friday afternoon, market participants are also awaiting the US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls).
DAX
The Iran conflict remains unresolved – hope for a framework agreement persists
The geopolitical conflict between Iran and the USA remains unresolved. In recent days, both warring parties had reported mutual attacks despite a recent ceasefire. It remains unclear whether the hoped-for „framework agreement“ will actually come about. In this context, the situation could remain opaque, meaning that a major breakthrough may still be a long way off.
US industrial ISM index better than expected despite Iran war – EU inflation at highest level since September 2023
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 54 points, exceeding expectations of 53 points and reaching its highest level in four years, up from 52.7 points previously. Companies may have pulled forward orders due to rising prices and potential supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran.
In May, Eurozone inflation was 3.2 percent in a preliminary estimate, according to the statistical office Eurostat, as expected, following 3.0 percent in April. At the same time, this is the highest level since September 2023.
US labor market data on Friday afternoon in focus – investors hope for monetary policy impulses
A first taste of the "NFPs" was already given on Tuesday by the so-called „JOLTs“ (Job Openings for Labour Turnover Survey), which, with 7.618 million job openings, turned out to be significantly higher than expected (6.88 million).
Wednesday's ADP employment data showed private sector job growth of 122,000, compared to an expected 117,000 and a revised 105,000 from the previous month.
Consequently, investors are eagerly awaiting the planned release of fresh US jobs data this afternoon (2:30 PM). Economists expect a gain of 85,000 jobs outside agriculture, compared to the 115,000 new jobs created in April. The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent compared to the previous month.
Investors expect important insights into the future direction of US monetary policy in this context. A strong US jobs report could dampen general interest rate cut fantasies.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
