The Iran conflict remains unresolved, yet hope continues to dominate financial markets. While the political reality is still marked by open questions, investors' gaze is already fixed on a possible peace between Iran and the USA in the Middle East. Even though the path to an agreement appears long and arduous, investors see it as a signal that the door for diplomatic solutions remains open. The increased resilience of market participants to geopolitical risks coincides with a seemingly unbroken AI euphoria in the USA, which repeatedly shifts the focus to tomorrow's growth opportunities rather than today's risks.
Investors' focus at the end of the trading week is on the official US labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls).
Iran conflict remains unresolved – Will the ceasefire be extended?
As in previous weeks, developments in the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the USA are likely to provide crucial impulses.
According to media reports, Donald Trump is not satisfied with the deal agreed upon so far. For days, Washington and Tehran have been working on a framework agreement that provides for an extension of the ceasefire, which has been in place since April 8th. Further negotiations were also said to take place. Questions still remain, for example, regarding the handling of Iran's highly enriched uranium.
Despite a ceasefire, both warring parties also attacked each other again over the past weekend, according to their own statements.
ISM Index and EU inflation data in focus – „JOLTs“ and ADP data could provide a potential preview of US jobs data
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is expected this afternoon at 4:00 PM.
Initial estimates for Eurozone inflation will be released on Tuesday at 11:00 AM. The impact of the Iran war on price increases is expected to be particularly interesting.
The so-called „JOLTS“ (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) could provide an initial taste of the „NFPs“ (at 4:00 PM).
The numbers referred to are the open positions that are unfilled on the last working day of the month.
On Wednesday, the ADP employment data should initially provide important impulses and a possible further appetizer for the NFPs (3:15 PM). The counterpart to the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the service sector will also come into focus (4:00 PM).
US labor market data on Friday - economists expect job market to cool
Consequently, the US jobs data on Friday afternoon should provide important impulses (2:30 PM).
Economists expect job growth outside of U.S. agriculture to be 85,000, after a total of 115,000 new jobs were created in April.
According to estimates, the unemployment rate is expected to stand at 4.3 percent, unchanged from the previous month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
