Investors on the German stock market are clinging to the hope of a ceasefire in the Iran conflict. It is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to distinguish between signal and noise.
The US government is said to have presented Iran with a 15-point plan for a ceasefire. At the same time, however, the USA is reportedly preparing to deploy thousands more soldiers to the Middle East.
There could be occasional stimuli from economic data and speeches by Fed central bankers.
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Back and forth in the Iran war - uncertainty likely to remain despite indications of a possible ceasefire
Developments in the Middle East conflict remain dynamic. Hopes of a possible ceasefire in the Middle East had already brought significant relief at the beginning of the week. According to Trump, it was announced on Monday that the USA would not attack any Iranian energy facilities in the next five days. The reason given for this was „very good and constructive“ talks with Iran about an end to the war. In return, Tehran denied Trump's statements. There were no direct contacts with Trump and no mediators, it said.
Beforehand, Trump had called on Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Otherwise, the USA would attack and eliminate Iranian power plants. The US government is now said to have presented Iran with a 15-point plan for a ceasefire.
Conviction of a sustainable agreement between Washington and Tehran still lacking
From an investor's point of view, there may still be a lack of genuine conviction that there could soon be a resilient truce between the parties to the conflict. The markets may fear a continuation of the geopolitical game of cat and mouse, which could tip over into a new round of escalation at any time.
This means that the acclaimed liberation threatens to turn out to be a classic flash in the pan. Investors are therefore likely to continue to focus heavily on political headlines from Washington and Tehran in the coming days.
Economic data calendar: Occasional impulses conceivable - GfK consumer confidence in focus on Thursday
The economic data calendar remains relatively manageable this week. Nevertheless, it is important to keep an eye on selective data. Various speeches by Fed representatives, which could send out monetary policy signals, are also likely to attract interest.
Thursday's agenda includes the publication of the GfK consumer climate survey (08:00).
On the US side, the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits usually come into focus (13:30).
Monetary policy stimulus possible from some Fed representatives
A speech by Fed Director Lisa Cook (21:00) and Stephen Miran (member of the Fed's Board of Governors/23:30) as well as Fed Vice Chairman Jeff Jefferson (00:00) and Fed Governor Michael Barr (00:10) are expected on Thursday and Friday respectively.
Later in the day, Mary Daly (16:30) from the central bank branch in San Francisco will speak.
The consumer sentiment index (Uni Michigan) is expected at 15:00.
Isabel Schnabel is expected to join the ranks of the European Central Bank at 17:00.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) both left their key interest rates unchanged last year.
