The coming hours and days are likely to continue to be shaped in particular by geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Investors will also be focusing on the US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) this week, which will need to be examined for monetary policy clues.
DAX
DAX in the grip of geopolitical risks for the time being - investors fear rising energy prices
The German benchmark index is likely to remain in the grip of geopolitical risks. What was long perceived as geopolitical background noise is now being priced in as a real market risk. The energy factor is currently acting as a neuralgic point. Investors are worried about supply disruptions and an escalation of the conflict. The hope that the conflict could be limited locally and have no lasting economic consequences has not materialized. At the latest with the growing concern about rising energy prices, the perception has changed.
ADP employment data and ISM purchasing managers for the USA in focus
The ADP employment data could provide a first foretaste of the publication of US labor market data this afternoon (14:15). Later in the day, the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the services sector will be on the agenda (16:00).
On the last trading day of the week, new data on EU gross domestic product will come into focus here in Germany (11:00 a.m.). A planned speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde should also be noted at this time.
US jobs data expected on Friday: Economists expect a significant slowdown in job creation compared to January
The official US jobs data could decide the weal and woe on Friday afternoon (14:30). Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 60,000 units, after a total of 130,000 new jobs were created in January. In addition to the unemployment rate, attention should also be paid to the development of average hourly wages. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% (previously: 4.3%).
US retail sales should also be observed at the same time.
Investors could be temporarily distracted from the geopolitical risks in the Middle East conflict by geopolitical developments. However, investors are not currently hoping for an interest rate cut on March 18 and thus at the next Fed meeting. According to the Fed Watch Tool, 2.7 percent of market participants expect a rate cut and 97.3 percent expect a pause in interest rates. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
