The first full week of trading in the new year 2026 to date has been characterized in particular by developments in the geopolitical conflict between the USA and Venezuela. It was also important to keep an eye on economic data in both Germany and the United States. The focus today is particularly on US labor market data (non-farm payrolls), which could provide important monetary policy impetus.
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Geopolitical risks between the USA and Venezuela are subsiding rapidly - but uncertainties are likely to remain
The geopolitical developments in the conflict between the United States and Venezuela drove investors at the start of the year. However, worries about a further escalation are once again out of sight and therefore out of mind for stock market participants. In the night from Friday to Saturday, the USA attacked the country with the world's highest oil reserves and took President Nicolás Maduro into custody.
At first, Trump had repeatedly threatened to attack the country again. However, according to him, a second attack has now been called off for the time being. He referred to the release of political prisoners in the country and the good cooperation between the two countries, including in terms of oil and gas infrastructure.
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector stood at 47.9 points last month, below expectations (48.3 points) following 48.2 points in the previous month. The index was published on Monday.
Preliminary figures on German inflation signal a significant decline
Preliminary German inflation figures signaled a further decline in inflation. At 1.8% (compared to the same month last year), these were below estimates (2.0%), after 2.3% in the previous month.
However, at 54.4 points, the counterpart to the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index in the service sector was able to significantly exceed the estimates made in advance (52.3 points), after 52.6 points in the previous month.
ADP data below expectations
The ADP employment data released on Wednesday provided a first appetizer for today's US jobs data. For example, 41,000 jobs were added in the private sector. However, a job increase of 47,000 units was expected after 32,000 jobs were cut in the previous month.
Economists expect job growth of 60,000 units outside US agriculture
According to current estimates, economists expect an increase in jobs outside the US agricultural sector of 60,000 units (December: 64,000 jobs).
The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5%, a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Finally, preliminary data on consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) will be published in the afternoon (16:00).
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