Despite inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, investors on both sides of the Atlantic can look back on a positive stock market year in 2025. In 2026, the AI fantasy in particular could also act as one of the price drivers, although concerns about a potential bubble bursting should not be neglected.
The monetary policy of the major central banks, the Fed and the ECB, as well as developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, for example, are likely to decide the weal and woe. Due to public holidays, trading venues were closed on Wednesday (New Year's Eve) and Thursday (New Year's Day).
At the end of the week and thus on the first full trading day in the new year 2026, trading volumes are likely to be manageable.
DAX
Fed minutes signal uncertainty among central bankers on rate cut at December meeting
The Fed minutes published in the US late on Tuesday evening signaled uncertainty among central bankers regarding the interest rate cut at the December meeting. According to the minutes, numerous supporters of the rate cut admitted that they „could have been in favor of leaving the target range unchanged given the various risks to the US economy“.
At the meeting on December 9 and 10, the Fed cut the key interest rate by a total of 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, the third time in a row. A total of six central bankers spoke out against the rate cut and two voting members vetoed the move. The reasons given for the disagreement included the lack of complete economic data due to the government shutdown in the US.
The Fed will next meet as scheduled on January 27 and 28 to decide on future monetary policy.
Chinese purchasing managers' indices give investors hope for economic recovery
The purchasing managers' indices for December have signaled a return to growth. In this context, investors are likely to be hoping for a recovery in the Chinese economy.
The index for the manufacturing sector climbed to 50.1 points (49.2 points) and its counterpart for the non-manufacturing sector to 50.2 points (previously: 49.5 points).
Purchasing managers in Germany and the eurozone for the manufacturing sector are weakening
According to the latest figures, the final purchasing managers' survey (HCOB) for the manufacturing industry in Germany stood at 47 points in December, down from 48.2 points in the previous month and thus below expectations (47.7 points). The equivalent figure for the eurozone was 48.8 points, after 49.6 points in the previous month (estimate: 49.2 points).
The figures for the United States (S&P Global) are expected in the afternoon at 3:45 pm.
Trading may not really pick up until Monday. One of the highlights of the week for investors will be the official US labor market data (non-farm payrolls), which is due to be published on Friday.
