In the last trading days of the year, investors are unlikely to let anything get in the way. There may be a few sporadic signs of impetus from the economic calendar shortly before the turn of the year. Whether investors will open their possibly already closed books again this year remains questionable. As in the previous week, it should be noted that trading in the USA is restricted between the years.
Artificial intelligence (AI), US monetary policy and the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be key topics of discussion in 2026
On Wall Street, the stock exchange doors were already open again on Boxing Day. One of the key topics of conversation on the trading floor is likely to continue to be artificial intelligence (AI), US monetary policy and the growing speculation surrounding Jerome Powell's successor, as well as developments in the geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Hopes for further interest rate cuts in 2026
Investors are likely to continue to hope for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, following the interest rate hike in mid-December, it remains questionable whether the monetary watchdog will turn the interest rate screws downwards at the first scheduled meeting in 2026 (January 28, 2026). Further interest rate decisions are planned for March 18 and April 29.
At the most recent central bank meeting, however, the Fed only held out the prospect of a total interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point for the coming year. The interest rate band itself currently stands at 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
Speculation surrounding Jerome Powell's successor could also increasingly drive investors in the first few weeks of the new year. The director of Donald Trump's National Economic Council (NEC), Kevin Hasset, is still being touted as a possible successor to Powell, who will step down at the end of May 2026.
Fed minutes on the agenda on Tuesday - publication of China data rounds off the year
The focus on Tuesday will be on the „FOMC Minutes“ (20:00) from the latest Fed meeting, from which investors could derive monetary policy signals.
In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Chinese economic data (NBS EMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors will come into focus (02:30).
No trading on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day in the USA
While regular trading takes place on December 30, there will be no trading on December 31 (New Year's Eve) and January 1, 2026 (New Year's Day). Trading will not open until January 2, 2026.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
