The past few trading days have been dominated by the eagerly awaited quarterly figures from NVIDIA and the belated publication of US labor market data for September. However, despite convincing results from the AI chip manufacturer, fears of an AI bubble and the absence of an interest rate hike by the Fed in December remain. Last but not least, investors can look forward to speeches by Fed representatives and US purchasing managers at the end of the week.
DAX
„FOMC Minutes“ signal disagreement on future interest rate course
Late on Wednesday evening, the so-called „FOMC minutes“ signaled that opinions on future monetary policy would diverge. At the end of October, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. However, one voice called for a hawkish monetary policy and one for a dovish one. However, the majority pointed out that further interest rate cuts could increase the risk of „entrenching inflation“.
Some participants also assumed that a further reduction would be appropriate at the upcoming December meeting.
US labor market data significantly better than expected - but with flaws
At 119,000, the official US labor market data (non-farm payrolls) was significantly higher than the 50,000 new non-farm jobs expected in advance. However, the unemployment rate climbed by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. A level of 4.3 percent was expected.
In addition, the August figure of 22,000 units was revised downwards by 4,000 units.
German purchasing managers: upturn unlikely to materialize for the time being
Initial estimates of purchasing managers (HCOB) for the manufacturing industry already signaled a slowdown this morning (48.4 points), after 49.8 points had been expected in advance (previously: 49.6 points).
The index for the private sector - industry and service providers combined - fell by 1.8 points to 52.1 points. An upturn in the German economy is therefore unlikely to materialize for the time being.
As in previous trading days, various Fed representatives are also expected to speak today, Friday. In addition to Governor Michael Barr (14:30), Philip Jefferson (14:45) and Lorie Logan (15:00/Dallas) will be speaking.
In the afternoon, the Purchasing Managers' Pendants for the US (S&P Global) will follow at 15:45.
Consumer confidence (University of Michigan) should also be observed (16:00).
NVIDIA shines again with figures - but risk appetite only increases briefly
On Wednesday evening after the US stock market closed, NVIDIA (ISIN: US67066G1040) presented its results for the past financial quarter, boosting the general risk sentiment. In the third quarter, turnover increased by 62 percent to 57 billion dollars compared to the previous year. Net profit climbed by 65 percent to 31.9 billion dollars. „The sales figures for Blackwell chips are incredibly high,“ said CEO Jensen Huang. „The demand for computing power is growing exponentially.“ For the fourth quarter of 2025, the NVIDIA boss forecast revenue of 65 billion (plus/minus two percent), which also exceeded expectations.
NVIDIA
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
