The past few trading days have been characterized in particular by developments in the US budget dispute. Uncertainty about the upcoming economic data following the end of the US shutdown is giving investors cold feet. Paradoxically, the lack of US economic data tended to be favorable for many investors, as the data gap apparently left room for interest rate cut fantasies. If new figures are on the table, this breeding ground could now disappear. In addition to monetary policy stimuli, it was the reporting season that kept investors busy.
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Historic US shutdown is history - transitional budget agreed until the end of January 2026
The longest shutdown in US history has ended after a total of 43 days. US President Donald Trump finalized the budget freeze with his signature. The House of Representatives had previously voted in favor of the interim budget.
Due to the partial US shutdown, numerous US economic data have not been published or have only been published with a delay in recent weeks, meaning that US consumer price data was not published on Thursday, for example.
It remains to be seen when fresh economic data will actually be published.
ZEW Index below expectations - „Economic expectations remain stable“
The ZEW index caused a stir in Germany on Tuesday, coming in at 38.5 points, falling short of expectations (40 points) after 39.3 points in the previous month. For the month of November, the Mannheim-based institute estimates expectations regarding the economic situation in Germany to be „virtually unchanged“. „The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment remains stable. However, the sentiment is characterized by a decline in confidence in the government's ability to act in terms of economic policy. The investment program is likely to have a
economic stimulus, but the structural problems are still there,“ says ZEW President Prof. Achim Wambach, PhD.
US monetary authorities dampen expectations of interest rate cuts - chance significantly reduced according to „Fed Watch Tool“
Investors were also repeatedly confronted with comments from various Fed representatives. On Wednesday, for example, monetary authority Susan Collins lowered expectations of rapid US interest rate cuts. According to her, she sees a „relatively high hurdle“ for further easing. She referred to concerns about persistently high inflation. The current range is 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Powell had said at the Fed's most recent meeting that a further rate cut at the December meeting was „not a foregone conclusion“.
The CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“ currently estimates the chance of a further rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point in the coming month (December 10) at just 49.6 percent, down from 94.4 percent a month ago.
Reporting season with impetus - Siemens Energy raises targets
The reporting season has also been exciting this week. In the fourth quarter of the 2024/45 financial year, turnover climbed by 9.7% to 10.4 billion euros. After taxes, the company reported a profit of 236 million euros, compared to a loss of 254 million euros in the same period of the previous year.
Siemens Energy (ISIN: DE000ENER6Y0) has proposed a dividend of 70 cents per share for 2025, the company said on Thursday evening.
Siemens Energy
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