In the new trading week, the hope of an end to the US shutdown is likely to lure market participants out of their reserves. It remains to be seen whether important US inflation data will be published in this context. The ongoing reporting season with figures from the second and third tiers should also attract interest.
First important hurdle cleared in the US Senate - Will the government shutdown be resolved?
After a total of 40 days of government shutdown in the US, a compromise solution is apparently emerging in the US Senate. In a vote on Sunday night, the Democrats voted in favor of deliberations on a so-called transition budget. The first hurdle to resolving the longest shutdown in US history to date has therefore been overcome. According to the Republican majority leader (John Thune), the bill is to be adapted in such a way that it combines short-term transitional funding with a package of three budget bills for the entire year.
Macro data likely to remain scarce - speech marathon by Fed representatives ahead
Despite hopes of a resolution to the partial US government shutdown, the publication of important macro data is likely to remain scarce.
In this context, planned speeches by Fed representatives, for example, should be scrutinized for monetary policy clues. FOMC member Mary Daly (San Francisco) is expected to speak at around 14:30 and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) at 15:45.
Fed Banking Supervisor Michael Barr (04:25), John Williams (New York/15:20), Anna Paulson (Philadelphia/16:00), Christopher Waller (16:20) and Trump confidant Stephen Miran (18:30) will be in the public eye on Wednesday.
The speech marathon continues on Thursday with Alberto Musalem (St. Louis/ 6:15 p.m.) and Beth Hammack (Cleveland/6:20 p.m.).
Fed member Schmid rounds off the trading week at 14:05.
Monetary policy developments are likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion alongside hopes for an end to the US shutdown. However, according to the CME Group's „Fed Watch Tool“, there is currently only a 64.9% chance of an interest rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, compared to 91.7% a month ago.
On Thursday afternoon, US consumer prices and retail sales would have been on the agenda for Friday. In view of the partial closure of the federal authorities, the publication of economic data has been put on hold or significantly delayed. The United States has been in the aforementioned „shutdown“ since October 1.
Reporting season remains in focus: Second and third-tier companies present results
In the ongoing reporting season, there could be some impetus with figures from the second and third series. For example, Cisco Systems (ISIN: US17275R1023) is expected to report its results for the past financial quarter on Wednesday and Walt Disney (ISIN: US2546871060) and Applied Materials (ISIN: US0382221051) on Thursday
