As in the previous trading week, US monetary policy is likely to remain one of the main topics of discussion on the market. At the same time, investors are repeatedly confronted with economic data in both Germany and the US.
Investors should also keep an eye on geopolitical developments between NATO and Russia, which are likely to hover over the markets as a classic sword of Damocles.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Geopolitical uncertainties: Focus on tensions between NATO and Russia
The tensions between NATO and Russia are considered a classic uncertainty factor for the stock markets. For example, Russian drones were recently spotted over Poland and Romania. NATO itself had signaled its determination with regard to past incidents.
A further escalation seems possible in this context. In this context, it is important to be prepared at all times for further unrest and, not least, possible effects on the stock markets.
After Powell speech: Investors miss hints about possible interest rate cuts
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank would have to weigh up concerns about inflation against a slowing labor market when making future interest rate decisions.
„Short-term inflation risks are to the upside and employment risks are to the downside,“ Powell said in a speech in Rhode Island on Tuesday. „There is no risk-free path,“ he continued.
Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates for the first time this year and adjusted the key interest rate downwards by 25 basis points to 4.00 to 4.25 percent.
GfK consumer confidence and numerous US economic data in focus on Thursday
GfK consumer confidence is already on the daily agenda on Thursday morning (08:00).
Investors should also keep an eye on speeches by various Fed representatives. For example, John Williams from the New York branch of the central bank will speak at 15:00 and Michelle Bowman at 16:00. Michael Barr will follow at 19:00 and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) at 21:30.
Numerous US economic data should be observed in the afternoon. New figures on gross domestic product (annualized), new orders for durable goods and weekly initial jobless claims are expected at 14:30.
US price data could send important monetary policy signals on Friday
Investors are likely to look to the core rate for personal consumption expenditure (price index) on Friday for important inflation indicators and thus monetary policy signals (14:30).
Finally, consumer confidence from the University of Michigan should also be observed (16:00).
