The tariff dispute and the associated recession concerns are likely to remain a major concern for investors. Possible counter-reactions by the eurozone to the latest US tariffs are now expected. At the same time, investors should once again keep a closer eye on monetary policy developments on the other side of the Atlantic. In addition to the Fed minutes from the latest central bank meeting, the focus will be on US inflation data. The start of the US reporting season is also likely to attract interest on Friday.
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Source: TradingView
Tariffs enter into force against numerous countries - further escalation possible
From today, tariffs against numerous countries on US imports, which the US President presented to the world a week ago in the Rose Garden of the White House, will take effect.
Trump also made good on his threat to China and imposed tariffs of 104% on the country after Beijing countered the US tariffs with 34%. At the beginning of the week, the Republican had rejected an offer from the EU. The EU Commission proposed abolishing all tariffs on industrial goods on both sides. Instead, Trump said that the EU should import more US energy as compensation.
Fed minutes could provide monetary policy signals
The first thing to keep an eye on this Wednesday evening is the so-called "FOMC minutes" (20:00), which investors should scan for monetary policy clues in the usual way. At its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve recently left the key interest rate level at a range of 4.25 to 4.50 percent. It is possible that the Fed could lower interest rates twice this year by a quarter of a percentage point each time.
Economists expect US inflation to fall - interest rate cuts conceivable
Thursday is likely to be dominated by the publication of new US inflation data (14:30). According to current estimates, experts expect an inflation rate including the drivers energy and food of 2.6% (compared to the same month last year), after 2.8% in February. The core inflation rate is expected to be 3.0% (previously: 3.1%).
Important inflation data is also on the daily agenda on Friday with US producer prices (14:30).
Consumer confidence (Reuters/Uni Michigan) rounds off the trading week from the perspective of the economic calendar on Friday at 16:00.
US reporting season starts: Big banks traditionally give the starting signal
Investors could be temporarily distracted from the developments in the customs dispute by the start of the US reporting season. Traditionally, major US banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and the Bank of New York Mellon kick off the reporting season. BlackRock's figures are also expected.
