The German benchmark index remains in the grip of the ongoing tariff dispute. In the run-up to an expected speech by US President Donald Trump, investors are holding back on investments for the time being. At the same time, attention is likely to turn to the official US labor market report, which will be published next Friday. The ADP employment data could provide a first taste of this this afternoon.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Introduction of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" conceivable - recession worries could increase
This Wednesday evening, investors are eagerly awaiting the announcement of new developments in the customs dispute. The speech is expected at around 22:00. US President Donald Trump may announce so-called reciprocal tariffs. According to him, the new tariff plans will affect "all" countries. According to media reports, a possible import tax of 20 percent could be imposed on the majority of imports. "They will go into effect immediately," said Trump's spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. Donald Trump referred to today in advance as "Liberation Day".
By introducing the tariffs, the US President could try to at least partially finance his election promises, such as tax cuts. At the same time, the punitive tariffs are likely to act as leverage in negotiations with other countries.
The European Union could therefore also be affected. In view of the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact, investors are likely to avoid the risk.
Chinese economic data should provide important guidance - ISM PMI index for the service sector in focus on Thursday
In the night from Wednesday to Thursday, the focus will initially be on Chinese economic data, which could provide important guidance for Thursday's trading. The so-called Caixin PMI index for the services sector will be published (03:45). On Thursday, the ISM PMI index for the service sector could provide economic impetus (14:30).
Non-farm payrolls could show signs of weakness - hopes for interest rate cut signals
Friday is likely to be dominated by the publication of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs), which are expected at 14:30. According to current estimates, experts expect an increase in non-farm payrolls of 128,000 units, following 151,000 new jobs in February. In this context, the unemployment rate is also expected to rise from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. Attention should also be paid to the development of average hourly wages.
A speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take center stage at 5:25 pm.
