Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of new US price data on Friday. However, given the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's current tariff policy, investors are likely to remain cautious. The fear of being caught on the wrong foot is obviously still too great. Investors are also hoping for monetary policy hints from various Fed representatives.
DAX
Source: TradingView
Various US economic data in view - monetary policy stimulus from Fed representatives conceivable
The new orders for durable goods (1:30 p.m.) should be noted today, Wednesday.
On Thursday, the first item on the agenda is the GDP growth rate for the United States (13:30).
Attention should also be paid to the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits (13:30).
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) expects a "significantly lower" key interest rate in the next twelve to 18 months
In an interview published by the Financial Times on Wednesday, it was revealed that the President of the Chicago-based central bank, Austan Goolsbee, expects a "significantly lower" key interest rate in the next twelve to 18 months. However, in view of the economic uncertainty, it could take longer than expected before the next interest rate cut comes.
"In my opinion, wait and see is the right approach when there is dust in the air and you are dealing with uncertainty," it said.
In particular, the so-called "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure is likely to attract attention on Friday (1:30 pm).
In this context, investors are hoping for important inflation signals and thus indications as to the future shape of US monetary policy.
In the previous trading week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate range unchanged at between 4.25 and 4.50 percent. However, the monetary watchdog signaled that interest rates could be lowered by a quarter of a percentage point twice more this year.
In this context, investors should monitor the scheduled speeches by Neel Kashkari (15:00) and Alberto Musalem (15:10) on Thursday afternoon for monetary policy clues.
GfK consumer confidence and US price data round off the trading week
On Friday, it is important to keep an eye on the so-called consumer confidence from GfK (08:00).
The "PCE deflator" for personal consumption expenditure could be seen as a highlight from the perspective of the economic calendar.
Consumer confidence published by Reuters and the University of Michigan could also provide impetus (15:00).
Further speeches by Fed representatives are on the agenda with Michael Barr (17:15) and Raphael Bostic (20:30).
