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DAX weekly outlook: High tension ahead of US inflation data - focus on customs policy and Ukraine-Russia conflict

Investors are eagerly awaiting today's publication of fresh US inflation data. At the same time, hopes of a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could cap the recent losses. However, Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to hover over the markets like a sword of Damocles.
Timo Emden in a dark suit and tie poses in front of a plain gray background and looks neutrally into the camera.
Timo Emden
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12.03.2025, 11:22 Uhr
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Last updated on Aug 28, 2026, 1:43 PM
A busy trading floor with people working at computer stations and large electronic stock exchange boards displaying data overhead, including the latest figures for the DAX weekly outlook.

Investors are eagerly awaiting today's publication of fresh US inflation data. At the same time, hopes of a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could cap the recent losses. However, Donald Trump's tariff policy continues to hover over the markets like a sword of Damocles.

DAX Chart

Source: TradingView

Donald Trump threatens new punitive tariffs against Canada - new concerns about trade conflict

Yesterday, Trump threatened Canada with a doubling of the punitive tariffs to 50 percent. Ontario Premier Doug Ford had previously announced a surcharge on electricity exports to the USA, which were in turn suspended. However, the announced tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminum have come into force, it was said.

The EU is also set to impose EU tariffs on US imports such as whisky, motorcycles and boats from April. According to the EU Commission, the US tariffs of 25 percent would affect European Union exports totaling 26 billion euros.

Hope for a possible ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict

The prospect of a possible ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is also likely to be a topic of conversation. Following the talks in Saudi Arabia, the US President also expressed relief. "Hopefully President Putin will also agree," Trump said outside the White House. A 30-day call to arms is planned, for example. US Secretary of State Rubio had negotiated with representatives of Ukraine. It was reported that Ukraine had agreed to the proposed ceasefire. 

Focus on US inflation data on Wednesday afternoon - investors betting on a decline in price pressure

Economists expect the core rate of inflation to be 3.2% (compared to the previous month), after 3.3% in January. This data is seen not least as the US Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
Consumer prices, including energy and food, are expected to rise by 2.9% in the same period (previously: 3.0%).

The focus on Thursday will also once again be on important inflation data in the form of US producer prices (13:30).
Next Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet to decide on future monetary policy. 

German inflation in focus on Friday - More DAX companies present figures

The trading week in Germany will be rounded off on Friday afternoon with the final inflation rates for the Federal Republic of Germany (08:00) and fresh consumer sentiment data (Reuters/Uni Michigan) in the USA at 15:00.

Today investors are looking at the figures for Porsche, Rheinmetall and Brenntag, on Thursday at K+S and Hannover Rueck and on Friday at BMW.

Legal notice

This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation within the meaning of Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Timo Emden

Chief market analyst
CapTrader
Timo Emden has been analyzing international capital markets for over ten years and provides daily commentary on developments in the equity, bond, and commodity markets for CapTrader.
All posts by Timo Emden

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