In the new trading week, investors' attention is likely to focus in particular on the publication of fresh US inflation data. In this context, monetary policy developments should also come back into the focus of investors. It is also important to keep an eye on the customs dispute.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Source: TradingView
Trade disputes likely to continue to drive investors
The US government recently doubled punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, which now stand at 20%. China has already responded with counter-tariffs on US agricultural products.
Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico were granted a grace period until April 2 at the end of last week. Canadian goods covered by the so-called North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) would not be subject to penalties until the above-mentioned date, it was announced. Trump had already announced such a regulation for Mexico in advance.
Jerome Powell points to the good state of the US economy - despite increased uncertainty
"Despite heightened uncertainties, the US economy remains in good shape," said US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday.
The official jobs report for February only showed 140,000 new jobs, which was significantly less than expected (170,000). In this context, the unemployment rate also increased from 4.0% to 4.1%.
"Many indicators show that the labor market is solid and largely balanced," said Powell. At the same time, he pointed out that employers had created an average of 191,000 jobs per month since September.
JOLTs in focus on Tuesday - US inflation data could provide important signals
The so-called "JOLTs" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which signal job vacancies, are likely to be the initial focus of market players on Tuesday in view of the recently published labor market report (15:00).
On Wednesday, the focus will be on consumer price data for the United States (13:30). Economists expect an inflation rate of 2.9 percent, after 3.0 percent in January. It should be noted that the data will be published an hour earlier than usual due to the time change.
The core inflation rate, which excludes the drivers energy and food, is expected to be 3.2% compared to the same month last year (previously: 3.3%).
Next week, Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet as scheduled to decide on the future level of key interest rates.
Focus on US producer price data on Thursday - further inflation signals conceivable
Important US price data is once again on the daily agenda on Thursday. The so-called producer prices for the United States are expected at 13:30. Investors are likely to expect important inflation signals in this context.
Usually, the weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits are also worth watching (13:30).
Last but not least, investors will focus on new consumer sentiment data from Reuters/University of Michigan on Friday (15:00).
In the reporting season, only latecomers from the second and third tiers remain on the agenda. For example, NIO will report on Tuesday, Adobe on Wednesday and DocuSign on Thursday.
