In addition to the customs issue, investors will be looking in particular at the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and the official US labor market report in the current trading week. Geopolitical developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict are also likely to remain of interest. Investors should focus on progress in possible peace talks.
DAX Chart
Source: TradingView
Rapprochement attempts by Ukraine: investors hope for progress in peace talks
Donald Trump has apparently welcomed the attempt at rapprochement by the Ukrainian head of state, Zelenskyi, following the scandal in the White House. According to the report, Trump received a letter from Zelenskyi stating that Ukraine was ready for peace negotiations. "I appreciate that," said Trump.
Ukraine is also prepared to sign the commodities agreement desired by the USA, the report continued. Investors are likely to welcome progress in the peace negotiations.
ADP employment data likely to provide first clues about NFPs - ECB in focus on Thursday
From the perspective of the economic data calendar, this afternoon's ADP employment data (14:15) should be the first exciting event. In this context, investors are hoping for important clues about Friday's NFP release.
Investors should also keep an eye on the ISM index for the non-manufacturing sector (16:00).
Thursday is likely to be dominated by the European Central Bank (ECB). The key interest rate decision is expected at 14:15. ECB President Christine Lagarde should appear before the public from 14:45.
Friday is also likely to be exciting with a planned Lagarde speech (10:30 a.m.).
New data on the development of EU gross domestic product will follow at 11:00.
Economists expect a slight increase in non-farm jobs compared to January
The publication of US labor market data is scheduled for the afternoon (14:30). According to current estimates, 160,000 new non-farm jobs may have been created, slightly more than in the previous month (143,000). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%, the same as in January.
If the labor market in the world's largest economy has developed more strongly than expected, this is likely to be at the expense of general interest rate cut fantasies.
Bayer struggles with sluggish agricultural business - Focus on other DAX companies on Thursday
This Wednesday morning, the pharmaceutical and agricultural group Bayer presented a decline in profits for the past quarter. According to the Group, operating profit (Ebidta) fell by around 22 percent to €2.35 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Due to weak agricultural business, Bayer's sales shrank by a good two percent to 46.6 billion euros last year.
According to CEO Bill Andersson, 2025 is a "pivotal year" for Bayer.
"We are rolling up our sleeves and taking the right measures that will benefit our customers, the company and its owners in the future," says Anderson.
Bayer
Source: TradingView
Deutsche Post and Zalando, for example, will report on Thursday.
