In the first full trading week of the new year 2025, numerous potential drivers are already waiting for investors from the perspective of the economic calendar. In particular, the publication of the US jobs report is likely to cast its shadow ahead. In view of robust US economic data, the Frankfurt stock market barometer has recently been unable to hold the psychological 20,000-point mark.
DAX Chart
Source: TradingView
Strong US data also catches investors on the wrong foot here in Germany
The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector in the US stood at 54.1 points in December, significantly higher than expected (53.4 points). A value below 50 points signals an economic slowdown. The "JOLTs" (job openings in the USA in November) also caused a stir, coming in at 8.098 million units, well above expectations (7.730 million).
Overall, the data on Tuesday afternoon dampened expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Retail sales expected to increase again in 2024 - ADP data and "FOMC Minutes" ahead
New retail data for the Federal Republic of Germany was published this morning. In 2024, sales are expected to have grown by 2.7% compared to the previous year, as the Federal Statistical Office announced in an initial estimate on Wednesday. Adjusted for prices (in real terms), however, turnover is only expected to increase by 1.3 percent. In previous years, a minus was reported in each case.
This Wednesday afternoon, employment data from the service provider Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will take center stage at 14:15. A job increase of 140,000 units is expected, following a total of 146,000 new jobs in November. This data usually gives a first taste of the NFPs on Friday.
In the evening, the focus will shift to the FOMC minutes (20:00), which will be scrutinized in the usual way for monetary policy clues. After the Fed meeting shortly before Christmas, investors are hoping for signals of a rate cut.
On Thursday, retail sales for the eurozone are likely to attract attention first (11:00 am).
The weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits (14:30) are also worth keeping an eye on.
Economists expect a decline in job creation - unemployment rate likely to remain at 4.2 percent
The official US labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls) will be in focus on Friday afternoon at 2:30 pm and has the potential to exert a decisive influence on the day's events and beyond.
According to the latest figures, economists expect job growth of 160,000 units for the month of December, after a total of 227,000 units in November.
It will also be interesting to look at the development of average hourly wages, which could rise by 0.30 percent compared to the previous month and thus less strongly than before (0.40 percent).
According to estimates, the separately calculated unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.2%, unchanged from November.
