Dear traders, dear stock market friends.
The DAX ended the past trading week with a loss of around 0.6 percent. After a positive start to the week, the German benchmark index fell significantly from Wednesday onwards and closed on Thursday at around 24,793 points. It was not until Friday that a rebound above the 25,000 point mark was achieved with a 1.1 percent increase. At the end of the week, the DAX stood at 25,087 points.
While the major US indices continue to trade near their record highs, the DAX has barely moved forward since a few weeks ago. From its all-time high at around 26,619 points at the end of August, the index has now moved up by just under 6 percent.
Last week, the main factors driving the decline in exports were the rising oil price and high bond yields. At the same time, economic data from Germany came in that were partially contradictory.
Oil prices and bond yields put the DAX under pressure
The DAX was particularly pressured on Wednesday and Thursday. New tensions in the Middle East and production outages in the Gulf of Mexico drove Brent to over 105 US dollars at times. At the same time, the yield on ten-year federal bonds rose again above 3.5 percent. Concerns about French state finances, which burdened European banks in particular, added additional pressure. The DAX lost more than 1 percent on both days.
On Friday, the situation eased somewhat. US President Donald Trump signaled that at least in the short term no new attacks on Iran are planned; at the same time, bond yields also declined. The DAX subsequently recovered and closed the week above 25,000 points.
German economic data contradict each other
Even with the German economic data, a closer look is worthwhile. Industrial orders rose by 10.6 percent in August compared to the previous month. This figure may seem very negative at first glance, but is somewhat misleading. The decline was almost entirely due to the absence of exceptionally large orders in aircraft, ship, rail, and military vehicle manufacturing. Without these large orders, the decline was only 0.1 percent.
Industrial production improved significantly. It rose by 2.0 percent in August, whereas an increase of only about 0.5 percent was expected.
In foreign trade, things looked even weaker again. German exports fell by 0.8 percent. Particularly striking was the decline in exports to the USA by 6.3 percent.
Overall, the German economy remains weak, but not everywhere equally so. Especially strong industrial production does not quite match the impression initially conveyed by the decline in orders.
Infineon and Deutsche Telekom under pressure; Zalando leads the winners
There were some major movements in the DAX individual stocks last week.
The weakest stock was Infineon, with a drop of nearly 9 percent. Following the strong price gains of the semiconductor stocks in the previous weeks, there was a significant sell-off here. Additionally, doubts arose over how quickly the enormous investments in artificial intelligence could actually translate into sales and profits over the course of the week.
Deutsche Telekom was also one of the biggest losers of the week, with a drop of around 7 percent. On Friday alone, the stock fell by almost 8 percent after SpaceX purchased nationwide mobile phone frequencies in the USA. Investors fear that this will lead to stronger competition in the long term for T-Mobile US, of which Deutsche Telekom holds around 54 percent.
On the winning side, Zalando led with a 6.9 percent increase. Brenntag gained 6.0 percent, Scout24 5.7 percent and SAP 4.1 percent. SAP announced, among other things, the acquisition of the Belgian workforce data specialist TechWolf, with the aim of expanding its offering around AI and HR software.
25,000 points will be the decisive mark
Chartically speaking, the DAX is currently in a very important price zone. The primary upward trend is still intact, but the correction has now reached the daily EMA and the 200-day SMA in the range of the round 25,000-point mark (or just below).
As long as the DAX defends this zone, the movement of the past weeks remains primarily a correction within the broader upward trend.
A sustained break below EMA 200 and the SMA 200, on the other hand, would be significantly more negative to assess and would noticeably worsen the technical picture.
On the upside, the first short-term resistance lies in the area of 25,450 to 25,500 points. The DAX already failed there last Tuesday.
US inflation and EU summit in focus
In the new week, several important events are scheduled again:
- On Tuesday, the final German consumer price index for September will be published first. The preliminary figures showed an inflation rate of 3.3 percent. The sharp increase in energy prices was particularly noticeable again.
- More importantly on Wednesday are the US consumer price figures for September. After the renewed oil price rise, the market will be watching closely to see whether inflationary pressure is also strengthening again.
- On Thursday, US producer prices will also be released.
- On Thursday and Friday, the EU heads of state and government will also meet in Brussels. Topics include high energy prices, the competitiveness of the European economy, and the relationship with China.
- The oil price remains important as well. After a serious attack on the airport in Riyadh over the weekend, geopolitical tensions have once again increased.
The crucial question for the DAX, at least in terms of the technical picture, remains whether the support between 24,900 and 25,000 will hold, or whether a break of that level will extend the downward movement.
Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 12.10.2026
