Your Broker for worldwide trading

New all-time high in the Nasdaq 100

Candlestick share chart with moving averages and volume bars; the price reaches a new high with increased trading volume, indicated by a red arrow.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

The Nasdaq-100 continued to soar in the past trading week and closed the week at a new all-time high of 22,534 points. Compared to the previous week, this corresponds to an increase of 3.1 % or 678 points. The main drivers were ongoing AI euphoria around mega-caps such as Nvidia, easing inflationary pressure, which is strengthening interest rate cut fantasies, and surprisingly robust earnings revisions for the second quarter. More than 80 % companies in the index have raised their outlooks, further allaying fears of an earnings recession and triggering fresh institutional inflows into tech stocks.

Fundamental tailwind for Nasdaq 100

Now that the chart signals have been green for weeks, the price rise is receiving increasingly substantial support from the macroeconomic and microeconomic side. Monetary policy, corporate balance sheets and the geopolitical environment all provide arguments that higher valuations are justified and that earnings growth is likely to continue.

Fed pivot and declining yields

The US Federal Reserve left the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.50 % on June 18. At the same time, the current dot plot shows only two interest rate cuts until the end of 2025, which many investors see as a "soft pivot": monetary policy remains supportive without sending out a message of recession. At the same time, yields on ten-year US Treasuries fell by just under 10 basis points to 4.29 % last week, making it much easier to discount future tech cash flows. 

Moderate price pressure eases valuations

With the core PCE rising by just 0.2 % in May and 2.7 % year-on-year, the key US inflation indicator continues to signal only moderate inflationary pressure. The simultaneous decline in the overall PCE to 0.1 % M/M strengthens the credibility of the Fed's inflation target, while falling real interest rates support valuation multiples, particularly in the high-growth technology segment. 

Mitigated geopolitical and trade policy risks

The global political environment is also brightening: The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced the immediate fear of escalation in the Middle East, an important sentiment factor for global risk assets. At the same time, the US trade talks with China and its G7 partners are progressing constructively; Washington is hinting at extending the "Liberation Day" tariff freeze, which expires on July 9, if sufficient progress is made, or mitigating it through partial agreements. Overall, this reduces the likelihood of abruptly increasing import tariffs and provides planning security for export-oriented tech companies.

Nasdaq 100 breaks out to new high

As you can see on the following weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 broke above the February highs last week and reached a new all-time high at the end of the week. The breakout took place under increased volume, which increases the probability that this is a sustained breakout and that the upward trend is likely to continue in the medium term.

Candlestick share chart with moving averages and volume bars; the price reaches a new high with increased trading volume, indicated by a red arrow.
Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart

Since the low on April 7, the Nasdaq has risen by around 35% in less than two months. A correction or consolidation in the coming weeks should therefore come as no surprise to anyone and would in principle represent an opportunity to jump on the current trend.

Seasonal strength in the Nasdaq 100 in July

However, July is still a seasonally very strong month for the Nasdaq 100. In the last 20 years, the index has risen in July 84% of the time. Seasonal weakness is not expected until late summer (August and September). The current development would therefore also fit very well into the seasonal "playbook".

The bar chart shows the percentage of months from 2006 to 2025 in which the $NDX closed higher than it opened, with July having the highest value at 84 % and October the lowest at 47 %.
The Nasdaq 100 has risen in 84 % of all cases over the last 20 years.

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 30.06.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options