HPE- With the world's fastest computer and tech hype into Q3 2024?
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is a global technology company. According to Reuters, its segments include Servers, Hybrid Cloud, Intelligent Edge, Financial Services, Corporate Investments and Other.
The Server segment consists of general-purpose servers for multi-workload computing and workload-optimized servers that offer performance for demanding applications and integrated systems. The Hybrid Cloud segment offers a variety of cloud-native and hybrid solutions in the areas of storage, private cloud and infrastructure software-as-a-service (SaaS). The Intelligent Edge segment offers wired and wireless local area networks, campus, branch and data center switching, software-defined wide area networks, software for private and public mobile networks, network security and related services. The Financial Services segment offers flexible investment solutions such as leasing, financing, IT consumption, utility programs and asset management services for customers that facilitate technology adoption models.
According to Statista, HPE currently owns the two best and fastest high-performance computers in the world, named Frontier and Aurora. As these computers are designed to process multiple data formats simultaneously, they are used in the field of AI in particular.
According to Thomson Reuters, HPE has a market capitalization of USD 25.2 billion as of 2 September 2024.
Before the quarterly figures - How will HPE start the second half of 2024?
HPE will publish its quarterly figures for Q3 2024 on 04.09.2024. Investors should be satisfied with the Group's share price performance to date. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has risen by 13.7%. HPE has been less convincing in the medium term. Those who have held the share for a year have only received an inflation adjustment with an increase of 5%.
The Dividend was increased from USD 0.48 last year to USD 0.52. HPE therefore currently pays a dividend of 2.7% p.a.
A closer look at the chart shows the volatility of HPE. The share has ranged between USD 14.80 and USD 21.80 over the past nine months.
In which direction will the pendulum swing for HPE? According to TOGGLE's AI, a volatile share price development is imminent. HPE shareholders or interested parties should therefore follow the quarterly figures closely.
According to TOGGLE, if the quarterly figures turn out better than expected, this will lead to a median increase of 4.47% one month after the figures are announced.
In the negative scenario, HPE underperforms the expected quarterly figures. According to TOGGLE, this scenario leads to a significant median price drop of 11.48% one month after the announcement of the figures.
Fundamental data analysis - HPE's strengths and weaknesses
Fundamental analysis uses past financial and business data to draw conclusions about the current situation of a company. Here, factors such as debt, profit and Cash flow of great importance. In order to interpret these key figures appropriately, it is crucial to set them in relation to a comparative universe. This makes it possible to assess whether the company is in a strong or weak position compared to others in its sector.
Is HPE crisis-proof? - A look at the balance sheet
HPE's balance sheet has been severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic in recent years. Returns were at rock bottom in the 2020 financial year, but the tech specialist has been able to recover in recent years.
The share of non-current assets in total assets has remained constant at over € 601 thousand since the 2020 financial year. In Q2 2024, 64.1% was recorded. HPE can therefore utilize the majority of the assets used from the substance. This is a quality feature, particularly in the technology industry, which has sometimes been affected by severe delivery delays.
The Debt ratio of HPE was reduced from 70% in the 2020 financial year to currently 63.6%. Given the current interest rate situation, a further reduction in borrowings would be desirable.
HPE's equity development is positive. Since 2020, the Equity by USD 35% and will now amount to around USD 21.7 billion in Q2 2024.
In summary, HPE was able to reduce its dependence on current assets in order to be less affected by supply bottlenecks. The debt ratio is slowly declining, and the company should aim to reduce debt more quickly given the current interest rate situation. The increase in equity by 35% since 2020 is extremely positive. All financial data presented here was calculated on the basis of Yahoo Finance.
How profitable is HPE?
The technology group's profitability has stabilized again since 2020, but is not satisfactory.
At 3%, the net return on assets was at rock bottom during the coronavirus crisis in 2020. Although this figure improved to 4.3% in the 2023 financial year, shareholders were not convinced. HPE stagnated in calendar year 2023, with the share price moving from USD 16 to USD 17.
HPE's net return on sales amounted to around 6% in 2020. A four-year high of 8.4% was reached in the 2023 financial year. In Q2 2024, 7% could be reported.
With a net return on equity of 10% in 2020, HPE recorded a four-year low. In the 2023 financial year, 11.5% was reported. In Q2 2024, HPE reported only 2% at this level.
In the 2023 financial year, HPE achieved a four-year high in the areas of return on assets, return on sales and return on equity. Comparing the current figures with those reported in 2020, it is clear that growth is only progressing slowly. HPE's return on assets in particular needs to be increased. Although HPE has the fastest computers in the world, its profitability growth is sluggish. On a positive note, the net return on sales reported in Q2 2024 points to a new record for the current financial year 2024.
Popular fundamental data on HPE
The Price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of HPE is currently 14.1 according to TWS, which is significantly below the level of competitors Cisco (19.9) and Dell (23.7).
Also the Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis of 1.2 is lower than Cisco's P/B ratio of 4.5.
At Price/sales ratio (P/S ratio) only Dell can keep up with HPE. The two companies have almost identical scores of 0.92 and 0.9. Cisco falls significantly behind here with 3.78.
HPE offers its shareholders a dividend of 2.7% based on the current share price, while Cisco pays 3.2% and Dell 1.5%.
Overall, HPE is valued significantly lower than Cisco and slightly lower than Dell.
Technical analysis - What picture does the HPE chart paint?
From March to June 2024, HPE rose from USD 14.60 to USD 22.60. The share was subsequently sold off with a temporary gap down to USD 16.50. However, the gap was closed again, allowing HPE to rise to USD 19.40. HPE has been highly volatile in recent months, which is why the following chart analysis is important.
With three negative and two positive aspects, the Ichimoku indicator tends to point to a consolidation and sideways phase.
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) describes whether a share is overbought or oversold. From a level of 70, the share is considered overbought. At a value below 30, the stock is considered oversold. According to this chart from TWS, HPE is rather overvalued at 60.8 according to the RSI.
The 200-day line serves as support for HPE at the USD 1.70 level, while the 50-day line at USD 19.60 forms resistance. The share is currently at USD 19.40 and must sustainably exceed the USD 19.60 hurdle in order to initiate an upward trend.
Overall, the chart points to a consolidation or a slight downward trend for HPE.
Conclusion: The valuation of HPE
HPE has become less dependent on supply bottlenecks and is slowly reducing its leverage. At the same time, profitability has reached a four-year high in all measured areas. The speed with which leverage is being reduced and profitability increased is worthy of criticism.
Based on the key figures described here, HPE is valued more favorably than Cisco and slightly lower than Dell.
HPE's volatile chart shows that investors are unsure about the direction in which the share is heading. The indicators tend to point to a slightly negative trend. The AI of TOGGLE points to a high volatility of 4% or 11% in both positive and negative scenarios.
HPE is making progress, but this is happening on too small a scale. Overall, the share must therefore be rated HOLD.
