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DAX breakout increasingly likely

A candlestick chart shows the DAX index with Bollinger bands, moving averages and shaded support and resistance zones, which illustrate a possible breakout of the price movement from March to December 2023.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

Germany's leading index, the DAX, has been trading in a range between around 23,100 and 24,500 points for eight months now. While no major jumps are to be expected between the years due to the low trading volume, the question remains as to when the DAX will finally manage to break out of its sideways trend.

DAX with strong performance over the year

In the last 160 trading days, or since May 7, the DAX has performed just 5.3 %. The US equity markets performed significantly better in the same period: the S&P 500 rose by 22.7 % and the Dow Jones by 17.8 %.

Line chart comparing the performance of the DAX, S&P 500 and DJIA indices from May to December 2015, with automatically saved draft showing different upward and downward movements over time.
Performance chart 160 trading days: DAX (red), S&P 500 (blue), Dow Jones (green)

However, when looking at performance since the beginning of the year, the DAX has kept up well with the US markets and, with a gain of 21.6 %, is even ahead of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.

Line chart comparing the performance of the DAX, the S&P 500 and the LTAK index from January to December 2015 and showing the percentage changes over time. Automatically saved draft.
Performance chart, since the beginning of the year: DAX (red), S&P 500 (blue), Dow Jones (green)

The strong outperformance of the DAX on a YTD basis is mainly due to the rally in the first five months, when many international investors increasingly withdrew capital from the US markets, which benefited the equity markets of other countries.

In recent months, the picture has normalized again and the US equity markets have almost made up for their shortfall.

Volatility in the DAX at an all-time low

It is not unusual for the DAX to take a breather after such a strong rally as that between January and May (including the short-lived slump in April) and not continue to rise at the same pace. On the contrary: after such a strong rise, the market was overbought and a consolidation is a healthy development for the long-term trend.

However, this consolidation phase has now lasted almost eight months. There is a basic rule on the stock market that says: high volatility is followed by low volatility, and low volatility is followed by high volatility. 

The longer the sideways trend continues, the more likely it is that a breakout under high volatility or a strong price movement will soon take place. One of the best and most popular indicators for analyzing this interplay of low and high volatility are the Bollinger Bands. These consist of a simple moving average of the last 20 days, as well as the two outer bands, which run two standard deviations above and below the moving average.

A contraction of the bands is also referred to as a “squeeze” and signals a phase of low volatility. If the bands open again after a squeeze and the price also breaks above or below one of the bands, this often signals the start of another phase of increased volatility.

In addition to the Bollinger Bands themselves, there are other indicators that are based on them:

  • The Bollinger Bandwidth simply measures the distance between the two bands. A low bandwidth is equivalent to a squeeze. The longer the bandwidth is at a very low level, the stronger or more meaningful the squeeze is. As you can see on the weekly chart below, the range of the weekly Bollinger Bands is currently at such a low level as we have rarely seen in recent years. And in every case, this was followed by a significant rise in the bandwidth, accompanied by a corresponding price movement.
  • The TTM Squeeze is also a good indicator for analyzing current market volatility. With this indicator developed by John F. Carter, a squeeze is signaled when the Bollinger Bands are within the Keltner Channels. As the Keltner channels tend to have a narrower bandwidth, this condition signals exceptionally low volatility. The squeeze is shown in the TTM Squeeze indicator on the chart below with the pink bars.
Weekly candlestick chart of the DAX index with Bollinger bands, TTM squeeze and Bollinger bandwidth; the price is consolidating in a range, as shown by the red arrows in this automatically saved draft.
DAX Index weekly chart with Bollinger bandwidth and TTM squeeze

The current phase of low volatility will therefore inevitably come to an end soon. Due to the still intact upward trend and the tailwind from the US, the chances of a breakout on the upside are still good. Should the DAX actually break below the support level shown in the chart above, however, there is a risk of further downside potential.

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 29.12.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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