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DAX analysis: Waiting for the breakout

A candlestick chart of the DAX index with two red dashed lines indicating possible breakout paths; Bollinger bands and support/resistance zones are shown for detailed DAX analysis.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

With a weekly performance of 2.7 %, the DAX showed renewed strength in the past trading week and set its sights on the all-time highs of around 24,500 points. Since the beginning of the year, the German benchmark index is now up 22.5 % and there seems to be no end in sight to the upward trend. In this analysis, we examine the technical situation of the DAX and some of the individual stocks in the index. 

Breakout from sideways range possible

A look at the daily chart shows that the DAX is still trading in a sideways range that has already lasted several months. The key resistance lies at around 24,500 points. A breakout above this resistance would unleash further upward potential. In addition to simply overcoming the resistance, a rise in volume on the breakout would signal that new buying volume is coming into the market, which would increase the probability of a trend continuation.  

Line chart of the DAX price development with highlighted support and resistance zones; red dashed arrows indicate possible upward and sideways trends. Note: An automatically saved draft of the analysis is created regularly.
DAX Index daily chart

Both the resistance on the upside and the support on the downside are reinforced by the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart. A breakout from the sideways trend would therefore also mean a breakout from the Bollinger bands, which would create an additional important trend signal.

A candlestick chart of the DAX index - an automatically saved draft - shows that the price is testing resistance at 24,000 points. Below this, Bollinger bands, moving averages and the RSI indicator are displayed.
DAX Index weekly chart

In addition to analyzing the DAX index, it is helpful to analyze the heavyweights in the DAX. This can not only provide you with important signals for the direction of the index, but also offer interesting setups for trades or long-term investments. 

The five shares with the highest market capitalization in the DAX are currently:

  1. SAP
  2. Siemens
  3. Airbus
  4. German Telekom
  5. Alliance

SAP share with reversal signals

Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2025, SAP shares rose from EUR 80 to around EUR 275 without any significant correction. After such a massive upward trend, the short-term weakness of recent weeks and months should come as no surprise. 

The following weekly chart shows that the share recently generated a reversal signal (hammer) in the EUR 220 - 225 range under significantly increased volume. The chances of a continuation of the trend or at least a medium-term upward movement towards the all-time highs therefore appear to be quite good.

A candlestick chart shows the price development from June 2021 to the end of 2025 with moving averages, Bollinger bands and bars for the trading volume below, displayed as an automatically saved draft for easy reference.
SAP share weekly chart

Siemens share on the verge of a breakout

Similar to the index itself, the Siemens share rose last week and a breakout to the upside would be possible and would open up an interesting trade setup.

A candlestick stock chart for Siemens AG from 2022 to mid-2025 shows uptrends, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, trading volume and the RSI indicator at the bottom - all part of an automatically saved draft for market analysis.
Siemens share weekly chart

Airbus share with relative strength

Airbus shares rose to a new all-time high at the beginning of September, which was followed by subsequent purchases. As the share is now at an advanced stage of the upward trend, from a risk/reward perspective, waiting for at least a brief correction is probably not a bad idea. 

A weekly candlestick chart of Airbus SE, labeled as an auto-saved draft, shows an uptrend from 2021 to 2025 with moving averages, support zones, volume bars and the RSI indicator shown below.
Airbus share weekly chart

Deutsche Telekom on a downward trend

Deutsche Telekom shares were in a strong uptrend until March 2025, followed by an extended correction. The share has since fallen below the support level of EUR 29.50 and is trading below all important moving averages on the daily chart. In addition, a sequence of falling lows and falling highs is clearly visible. A long scenario would come into consideration at the earliest if the share were able to recapture the moving averages and break out above the downward trend line.

Share chart of Deutsche Telekom AG with price development with moving averages, volume bars, Bollinger Bands, RSI, a descending trend line from April to October 2021 and an automatically saved draft of the analysis.
Deutsche Telekom share weekly chart

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 06.10.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

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