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DAX defends important support

A candlestick chart shows that the DAX index is rising, with support zones highlighted and a new high near 25,000 reached in early 2024.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

After the DAX defended the support zone at 24,500 points, the German benchmark index continued its upward trend over the past three weeks and now appears to be targeting the all-time high again. With a rise of around 1.4 % last week, the overall mood remained positive. The German equity market received a tailwind above all from surprisingly strong economic data from Germany and the eurozone (especially the purchasing managers' indices), a continued moderate inflation and interest rate environment in Europe (including falling German producer prices), as well as a friendlier global risk-on environment at the end of the week following the US Supreme Court's ruling against US tariffs. At the same time, however, market sentiment was not unaffected: geopolitical tensions (Iran/Ukraine) and the temporary rise in oil prices led to greater uncertainty at times and temporarily slowed momentum.

Technical outlook

The price zone at around 24,500 points proved to be a seemingly insurmountable resistance for the DAX in the second half of last year. After the breakout above the resistance area and out of the sideways trend that had lasted for more than six months right at the start of the year, a very important bullish chart signal emerged.

In recent weeks, this former resistance area - which has now reversed its function and serves as support - has been tested and defended again. This means that the chances of an immediate continuation of the trend are very good. However, if the DAX were to turn south again in the coming weeks and break through the support level to the downside, the chart picture would become much gloomier and the breakout would (initially) be considered a failure.

A stock chart shows the rising DAX index breaking out above a consolidation range, with volume bars below and a red upward trend line drawn from the 2023 low to February 2024 - like an automatically saved draft of the market's progress.
DAX Index daily chart

“Risk-on” despite background noise

The buy-the-dip sentiment therefore seems to be continuing as long as the macro data does not change. Despite interim negative factors such as a higher oil price, the ECB staffing debate and geopolitical headlines, the DAX continued to rise last week. The market did not ignore these risks, but overall assessed them as manageable. 

Germany PMIs surprise positively

The strongest fundamental macroeconomic impetus for the DAX on Friday came from the German preliminary purchasing managers' indices (PMI):

  • Purchasing Managers' Index (EMI) overall economy Germany (preliminary): 53.1 (after 52.1)
  • Purchasing Managers' Index (EMI) services sector: 53.4
  • Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Manufacturing / Industry: 50.7 (above the 50 threshold for the first time since June 2022)

This is particularly important for the DAX because the index is heavily influenced by cyclical and export-oriented companies. The fact that manufacturing is returning to expansionary territory improves the outlook for sectors such as industry, chemicals, mechanical engineering and parts of the automotive industry. This confirms the positive signals from January and makes it more likely that the German economy will grow in the first quarter.

ZEW weaker, but not alarming

Prior to this, there was a dip in the ZEW economic expectations over the course of the week: The ZEW sentiment fell to 58.3 (after 59.6); 65.0 had been expected 

This shows that The economic recovery is recognizable, but remains fragile. Although the expectation value has weakened, the assessment of the current situation has improved further to -65.9 points (highest level in seven months). This results in a coherent overall picture of the market trend: more cautious expectations, but no indication of a real slump in growth.

Supreme Court declares US tariffs illegal

Another important boost to sentiment came from the US on Friday: the US Supreme Court declared the far-reaching “Trump tariffs” based on emergency legislation to be illegal. This was initially a clear sign of relief for the markets, as it removed some of the global trade pressure that had previously built up. European equities reacted positively accordingly; the STOXX 600 closed at a record level, which also improved the environment for the DAX, as many index stocks are heavily export-oriented and sensitive to changes in global trade. If the risk of broad-based US tariffs recedes, at least temporarily, this will improve the assessment of sales markets, supply chains and margin pressure in the short term, particularly for industrial, automotive and chemical stocks. 

At the same time, however, this does not mean that the issue is over: the US government has already signaled that it will examine or use other legal avenues for new tariffs (initially with a temporary general tariff). This means that trade policy uncertainty is likely to remain a macro factor.

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 23.02.2026

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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