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DAX forecast and analysis: European equities under pressure after European elections

Liniendiagramm, das die Bewegung des DAX-Index von Oktober bis Juni zeigt. Es zeigt einen Aufwärtstrend mit mehreren Unterstützungslinien und einem kürzlichen Rückgang unter ein wichtiges Unterstützungsniveau, das mehrere gleitende Durchschnitte kreuzt. Der Entwurf wurde zur späteren Bezugnahme gespeichert und Aktualisierungen werden automatisch eingearbeitet.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

With a fall of 2.99 %, the DAX experienced its weakest week of the current year in the last trading week. After the European elections took place the previous weekend and caused political uncertainty in some European countries, the DAX remained stable in the first half of the week. The leading German index came under significant pressure on Thursday and Friday and briefly slipped below 18,000 points.

European elections cause uncertainty

The dissolution of the French parliament by Emmanuel Macron and the announcement of new elections at the end of June caused political chaos and uncertainty in France. The French benchmark index CAC 40 fell by more than 6 % last week. The Italian stock market also suffered price losses of around 6 %.

As can be seen on the following chart, the CAC 40 opened below the support zone at 7900 points on Monday. After a small pullback, the index continued to fall sharply over the course of the week and closed below the daily EMA 200 (red).

CAC 40 daily chart

DAX falls below short-term support zone

The DAX was also affected and broke through the short-term support zone at around 18,350 points over the course of the week. The upward trend line, the lower Bollinger band as well as the daily EMA and daily SMA 50 were located here. The next important support lies at 17,700 - 17,800 points.

DAX daily chart

Overarching upward trend intact

On a weekly basis, last week's correction reached the weekly EMA 20 (purple). The following chart shows that the overarching upward trend is fully intact. The DAX was previously in an advanced phase of the primary uptrend. The movement ended almost exactly at the upper trend channel line. The important price zones and correction levels are also clearly visible on the weekly chart. If the 17,700 points are broken downwards, there is a high probability that the correction will extend. There are several support areas on the downside: The daily EMA 200, the weekly EMA 50, the upward trend channel line and the horizontal supports at 17,000 points and 16,500 points. Should a reversal signal occur at one of these support zones, ideally under high volume, this would be another opportunity to jump on the overarching upward trend.

DAX weekly chart

Covestro, Beiersdorf and Symrise among the winners

Of the 40 DAX stocks, 33 shares suffered price losses last week and only 7 shares ended the week with a gain. Covestro led the list of winners with a price increase of just over 6 %. The share broke above short-term resistance on Tuesday amid high volumes. In the second half of the week, the share corrected to the support area, so that there is currently at least a short-term trading opportunity here. The positive price reaction was triggered by reports on the progress of takeover negotiations with Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.

Covestro daily chart

Auch die Beiersdorf-Aktie beendete die Woche positiv. Besonders beeindruckend ist dabei die Tatsache, dass sich die Aktie trotz des schwachen Gesamtmarktes behaupten kann und nur wenige Punkte unter ihrem Allzeithoch notiert.

Symrise is also on the list of winners. The weekly chart shows that the share has been in a broad consolidation formation for around a year. The current relative strength and increasing momentum suggest that a strong price rally could follow in the event of a breakout. The volume analysis also seems to indicate that the share is currently being accumulated by investors. The On Balance Volume (OBV) recently rose significantly and has broken out to the upside.

Symrise daily chart with On Balance Volume (OBV)

Author Tobias Schmid
Datum: 17.06.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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