Your Broker for worldwide trading

DAX forecast and analysis: Record chase continues

A stock chart showing price movements with technical indicators and hand-drawn annotations; an uptrend is highlighted with an arrow and potential support zones are marked with green rectangles. This automatically saved draft captures detailed market insights.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

The DAX ended the past trading week virtually unchanged. After a correction of around 5% or 940 points in April, the German benchmark index continued its upward trend in the first half of May and rose to a new all-time high. The fundamental environment and not least the developments in the USA still appear favorable for a continuation of the bull market in the medium to long term.

Positive sentiment after US consumer prices

As is so often the case, the DAX was also infected by the positive mood in the USA last week. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq Composite all rose to new all-time highs. The focus was particularly on the consumer prices published on Wednesday afternoon. After producer prices came in slightly higher than the market had expected on Tuesday, there were fears that consumer prices might also be hotter and signal ongoing inflationary pressure. However, with CPI at 3.4 % on a YOY basis, expectations were confirmed and the trend towards disinflation continued compared to the previous month.

Further economic data signaled a moderate slowdown in the economy. The combination of declining inflation data and an economic slowdown gives the US Fed more leeway to cut interest rates from September.

Developments in the US, and in particular the Fed's interest rate policy, also play an important role for the European financial markets and should be monitored closely. The DAX reached a new all-time high on Wednesday and rose to just under 18,900 points.

Upward trend opens up opportunities

As you can see on the chart below, the DAX is in a “clean” upward trend, which was confirmed by the new all-time high. The moving averages also confirm the trend.

DAX Index daily chart with moving averages and support zones

DAX Index daily chart with moving averages and support zones

Depending on the time horizon and trading strategy, there are different options for traders and investors. First of all, it has once again been proven that in an upward trend with such strong momentum, no attempt should be made to trade against the trend. In most cases, corrections are an opportunity to seek entries at more favorable prices and with a better risk/reward ratio and should generally not be used to speculate on a reversal of the primary trend as long as there are no clear signs of this.

The trend is currently once again in an advanced movement phase of the upward trend. If you want to jump on the trend now, you should always allow for a correction. It is better to be patient and look for entries in the area of a support zone. The first important support level is located at around 18,500 points, in the area of the local highs from the end of March and the beginning of April in conjunction with the daily EMA 20 (purple). The next support area is around 18,200 points. This is where the EMA 50 (green) runs, which has not been breached since the start of the rally in November; the horizontal support area and the trend line also offer support.

In addition to directional long trades, selling put options near the above-mentioned support areas or a few points below them is a good way to generate a premium income. Depending on the strategy, it may make sense to hedge sold puts (short puts) by buying a corresponding number of puts with a lower strike price in order to reduce the risk (bull put spreads).

Author Tobias Schmid
Datum: 20.05.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options