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DAX forecast and analysis: A tailwind into the new year

Line chart of the DAX index with trend lines and annotations. Includes 50-day and 200-day EMAs, secondary uptrend and projected movement.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

With a performance of 18.8% in 2024 and 20.3% in 2023, the DAX has delivered a remarkable performance over the past two years. The German benchmark index is on an impeccable long-term upward trend, despite a weakening domestic economy. At the start of the new year, many investors are wondering how long the current trend will continue and whether a trend reversal or an extended correction phase is overdue.

No signs of weakness

Despite the above-average strength of the last two years, there are currently no signs of weakness in the DAX. Both fundamentally and technically, the signs are still green. In line with the law of inertia, we should expect the positive trend to continue until new external factors emerge that could change the direction of the trend.

Fears of a sudden, unexpected trend reversal or a sudden crash are also usually unfounded. If a bear market or a trend reversal of the primary (long-term) upward trend is imminent, this does not usually happen overnight, but takes a few weeks to a few months. During such a top formation, there are usually clear technical warning signals, such as selling under heavy volume. 

A trend reversal also requires a chart-based trend break or a counter-signal on the trend size of the primary trend. The following weekly chart shows the movement and correction phases of the long-term upward trend.

Line chart showing the DAX index in an upward trend from 2023 to 2025, with moving averages and indicated support/resistance levels.
DAX Index weekly chart

As you can see, the DAX is in a clear uptrend, recognizable by the sequence of rising highs and rising lows. Although the current movement phase is already well advanced and the DAX has bounced off the upper trend channel line, the most recent downward movement merely represents the possible start of a correction. As long as the last correction low of around 17,000 points - 17,661 points on a weekly closing price basis - is not undercut, the upward trend remains unbroken from a technical market perspective.

The next important support zones visible on the weekly chart are:

  • 19,500 - 19,650 points: A short-term horizontal support is located here. The DAX could receive additional support here from the upward trend line and the weekly EMA 20.
  • 18,750 - 19,000 points: An important horizontal support area is located here, which is generated by the local highs and the former resistance area from the summer months. The weekly EMA 50 is also likely to run into this price zone in the coming weeks and provide additional support.
  • Long-term upward trend line: The combination of the local low from October 2022 (start of the upward trend) and the low from October 2023 creates a trend line. If the DAX tests this trend line again in the coming months, technical support can also be expected here.

Short-term support in the DAX (daily chart)

A sequence of rising highs and rising lows can also be seen on the daily chart. It is important to note that this is a secondary upward trend. This secondary trend represents the movement phase of the primary trend. This means that if the secondary trend is broken or reversed and a downtrend develops, it would be a secondary downtrend. This would represent the correction of the primary upward trend.

Line chart of the DAX index with trend lines and annotations. Includes 50-day and 200-day EMAs, secondary uptrend and projected movement.
DAX daily chart

In addition to the above-mentioned supports on the weekly chart, these are also clearly visible on the daily chart:

  • 19,600 - 19,700 points: Horizontal support through the last local high of the secondary uptrend. The daily EMA 50 and an upward trend line also run here.
  • 19,000 points: Important horizontal support area. In addition, the daily EMA 200 will rise to around 19,000 points over the next few days/weeks.

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 06.01.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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