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DAX takes its time 

A DAX candlestick chart shows the price movements with Bollinger bands, moving averages and the RSI indicator and illustrates the consolidation towards the middle of 2025.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

While the US share indices reached record highs again last week, the DAX is still in a sideways consolidation phase. However, the longer this sideways phase and low volatility continues, the more likely it is that there will soon be a sustained breakout, for which preparations can be made now.

DAX quotes above weekly EMA 20

Although the DAX has been consolidating sideways since the beginning of June and has not made any sustained upward movement since then, the index is still trading above the weekly EMA-20, indicating that the long-term upward trend is still fully intact and that the DAX is merely taking a breather after the strong rally in the preceding months.

It is now important that the support zone in the range of 23,300 - 23,400 points can be defended. For short-term traders, a retest of this support would offer the potential for new long entries. However, the next sustainable long signal will only emerge if the market breaks above the resistance at 24,500 points.

The weekly Bollinger Bands are currently at exactly the same price levels as the support area on the downside and the resistance area on the upside. A breakout above or below one of the Bollinger Bands would therefore be an important trend signal and is very likely to lead to the creation of new momentum. Due to the long-term primary uptrend and the seasonally strong phase at the end of the year, an upward breakout would be favored.

A candlestick chart of the DAX index from the end of 2023 to mid-2025 with price consolidation, Bollinger Bands, moving averages and RSI indicator at the bottom.
DAX Index weekly chart

Economic environment and economic developments

The macroeconomic environment for the DAX remains mixed: Germany's GDP stagnated in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter (0.0 %), burdened by weaker exports, among other things, while investments in equipment increased slightly. By contrast, the continuing disinflationary trend can certainly be seen as a positive signal for the DAX. Inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.1 % (flash) in October, with 2.3 % expected for Germany. The ECB left its key interest rates unchanged on October 30. Overall, this creates an environment in which the market is waiting for better data, but monetary policy is not stepping on the brakes.

Positive impetus from the USA

Even if new all-time highs in the DAX are still to come, there has recently been a noticeable tailwind from the USA: in the last week of October, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to new record highs.

In addition to the Fed's latest interest rate cut and an easing of the trade conflict between the USA and China, as well as a temporary pause in customs duties and talks on rare earths, the positive sentiment was supported by strong quarterly figures from tech companies:

  • Alphabet broke the 100 billion $ barrier for the first time in the quarter (revenue 102.3 billion $, strong growth in Search, YouTube and Cloud).
  • Amazon impressed with $ sales of 180.1 billion, AWS grew by % and contributed the majority of the operating result.
  • Apple reported $ 102.5 billion in revenue and 1.85 $ EPS for the September quarter and forecast double-digit iPhone growth for the Christmas quarter.
  • Microsoft increased sales to around $ 77.7 billion, but warned of continued high AI investments (capex approx. $ 35 billion in the quarter).
  • At Meta, a one-time special tax effect (approx. $ 15.9bn) and higher capex plans weighed on the share despite solid sales ($ 51.4bn) and Q4 outlook.

Author Tobias Schmid
Date: 03.11.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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