Your Broker for worldwide trading

Dow Jones benefits from de-escalation in trade dispute

A detailed stock chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average with candles, trend lines and annotations. Volume data is shown below.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

Following the announcement of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump, stock markets around the world came under heavy pressure. The Dow Jones Index fell to 36,612 points at one point, representing a slump of almost 20 %. After signs continued to point to escalation at the beginning of last week - particularly between the US and China - Asian and European markets in particular also slumped significantly. Later in the week, however, Trump suddenly rowed back and caused great relief among investors. 

At the time of writing this article (over the weekend), further suspensions and/or exemptions to the previously announced tariffs have been reported, which is very likely to ensure a very friendly start to the new trading week on Monday.

Market forces Trump to give in

Donald Trump's announcement of so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2 triggered a massive sell-off on the global stock markets. But it wasn't just shares that suffered price losses. Last week, there was also a massive sell-off in US government bonds, which in turn led to a sharp rise in bond yields. 

The fact that yields on 10-year and 30-year US government bonds initially fell (and prices rose) after April 2 was interpreted by many traders and analysts as a likely intended side effect of the tariff announcements. The USA has a refinancing requirement of around USD 9 trillion in the coming months. Lower yields/interest rates are a declared goal of the new US government and would significantly reduce costs and the burden on the national budget. In fact, it was reasonable to assume that one of the main reasons for the announcement of the new tariffs was an attempt to push down yields at the long end.

However, this (supposed) strategy only worked in the short term. Between Monday and Wednesday, there was a veritable explosion in yields and a collapse in bond prices. The movement was accelerated because some large hedge funds got into difficulties in connection with the "base trade". The base trade is a type of arbitrage strategy on the spread between bond futures and the underlying bonds, in which market participants buy US government bonds and simultaneously hedge these purchases via futures contracts. The positions are generally highly leveraged and react sensitively to abrupt market movements. Due to the sudden fall in prices, some large hedge funds such as Millennium, Citadel and Point72 got into difficulties and were forced to liquidate positions, leading to large losses on the one hand and reinforcing the downward movement in a kind of negative spiral on the other. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) was reportedly preparing for possible rescue measures to prevent a major financial crash. These distortions caused additional nervousness not only on the bond market, but also on the stock market.

Is the spook (trade dispute) already over?

The sharp sell-off on the stock markets and the slump on the bond market may have been among the reasons for the US President's abrupt about-turn. Last Wednesday, Trump initially announced that reciprocal tariffs for all countries with the exception of China would be paused for 90 days and that only the flat tariffs of 10 % would remain in place for all goods imports.

Renewed signs of easing were reported over the weekend. Tariffs on cell phones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics are to be withdrawn or paused. On the one hand, these developments are likely to lead to renewed strong buying on Monday. On the other hand, uncertainty is likely to persist in the coming weeks due to the contradictory signals and the repeated back-and-forth and could continue to weigh on the market.

A detailed stock chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average with candles, trend lines and annotations. Volume data is shown below.
Dow Jones weekly chart

Downward trend still intact

The important price markers in the Dow Jones are clearly visible on the following chart. The next short-term resistance level is around 41,000 points. For the chart picture to brighten significantly, however, the Dow would also have to overcome the 42,000 points, including the daily EMA and SMA 200. As long as these two important resistances are not exceeded, there is potential for a renewed downward movement. A potential downward movement can often be easily recognized when selling takes place at one of the resistances under strong volume.

Line chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the beginning of 2020 to mid-2020, showing fluctuating prices and trading volumes.
Dow Jones daily chart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 14.04.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options