Opens in a new tab
Your Broker for worldwide trading

Dow Jones Forecast & Analysis: No sign of weakness

Design of a line chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average from July 2010 to October 2023, with automatically calculated trend lines, moving averages and volume bars at the bottom.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

The Dow Jones is currently moving upwards as if on rails. With a gain of 0.96 %, the index reached another all-time high last week for the sixth week in a row. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow has already risen by almost 15 %. Over a 12-month period, the performance even amounts to almost 30 %.

The bull market is therefore in full swing. The only strategy a trader or investor should pursue in such a strong trend is a trend-following approach. Even if the market has already risen so far that a correction is overdue, there is a very high risk of being "overrun" by the current trend if you try to go against it.

As you can see in the weekly chart below, the Dow Jones is already in an advanced trend movement again. The further the movement progresses, the higher the probability of a correction. Jumping on the current trend movement in such a phase carries the risk of entering at an unfavorable time.

Dow Jones Index weekly chart

Dow Jones Index daily chart

There is a better probability of success and a better risk/reward ratio if a new movement phase begins after a correction.

Instead of waiting for a correction to open a directional trade, using an options strategy such as a cash secured put can be an interesting alternative to generate income in the meantime. This involves selling a put option, usually a few points below the current price level, which generates a premium income. If the market is trading above the strike price of the option on the expiry date, the option expires worthless and the amount of the profit corresponds to the option premium collected. If the market is quoted below the strike price, the option is automatically exercised, resulting in a long position in the underlying (in the case of equity, ETF and futures options). In this case, the sold put works in a similar way to a buy limit order, with the difference that the sale of the option generates additional income (option premium). In addition to trades at index level, this strategy is also ideal for individual shares. The majority of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones are currently in stable upward trends. Here it is worth screening for promising chart set-ups.

The Travelers (TRV)

With a gain of 12.2 %, The Travelers was by far the strongest stock in the Dow Jones last week. After the earnings release, the stock opened at a new all-time high above the resistance area on Thursday. Such a clear breakout after earnings under very high volume is often a signal for a medium-term trend continuation. Here, too, it makes sense to wait for at least a short-term correction in order to then look for a long entry or, as described above, to sell put options (cash-secured puts) near the support area.

The Travelers share daily chart

The Travelers share (TRV) daily chart

McDonald's

After the McDonald's share performed very weakly in the first half of the year and was unable to participate in the upward trend of the broad market, the share has made a brilliant comeback in recent weeks. Without taking a breather, the rally led to a breakout above the resistance level of around USD 300. Although the share is now also overbought, it is still an interesting candidate for the watch list. In the event of a correction in the coming weeks, there could be an opportunity to go long.

McDonald's share daily chart

McDonald's share (MCD) daily chart

Goldman Sachs

Most of the US banks have published quarterly results in the last two weeks. The results as well as the price reactions were very positive in most cases and the entire sector currently has a tailwind. Goldman Sachs shares were also able to break out to a new high and are currently completing a pullback to the breakout level, which opens up the opportunity for a long trade out of the correction.

Goldman Sachs Share Daily Chart

Goldman Sachs Share (GS) Daily Chart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 21.10.2024

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

Mandatory information and disclaimer

This is a marketing communication within the meaning of Section 63 (6) of the German Securities Trading Act and does not contain investment strategy recommendations, investment recommendations or financial analyses in accordance with Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and Article 20 of the Market Abuse Regulation. It therefore does not fulfill the legal requirements to guarantee the objectivity of investment strategy recommendations/investment recommendations/financial analyses. CapTrader GmbH or its employees are therefore not legally prohibited from trading or providing services in the securities products mentioned therein prior to publication of the information.

Past performance, simulations or forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Mandatory information and limitation of liability for CapTrader and any third-party content providers can be found at https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben
Please note that investing in financial instruments involves high risks and take note of our disclaimer and the mandatory legal information at the locations indicated.

  1. Mandatory information

Responsible: CapTrader GmbH, Elberfelder Straße 2, 40213 Düsseldorf; Commercial Register Number: HRB 86537 Düsseldorf Local Court; VAT ID DE323771603; Managing Directors Andreas Weiß, Christian Weiß, Michael Heyder; Tel: +49 211-740786-00, Fax: +49 211-740786-90.

Zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Graurheindorfer Straße 108, D – 53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28 D – 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Tel: 0228 4108 – 0 Fax: 0228 4108 1550 E-Mail: poststelle@bafin.de; Institutsnummer 10156708

Conflicts of interest CapTrader in marketing communications: CapTrader GmbH confirms that it does not hold any positions in the mentioned financial instruments beyond the positions mentioned in the marketing communication itself, if applicable. There are also no other conflicts of interest within the meaning of CapTrader GmbH's Financial Analysis and Marketing Communication Policy.

Conflicts of interest and mandatory disclosures by the third-party content provider for marketing communications with financial instrument recommendations: See under https://www.captrader.com/marketingmitteilung/angaben  to creators of third-party content

The copyright to the marketing communication is reserved. Reprinting and distribution is only permitted with our consent.

  1. Disclaimer

By accepting the content, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the limitation of liability.

a) Disclaimer for third-party content

CapTrader GmbH offers authors - such as editors, guest commentators, agencies and companies - the opportunity to publish comments, analyses, news and company announcements. Their opinions do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of CapTrader GmbH and its employees. CapTrader GmbH assumes neither liability nor guarantee for this content. This applies in particular to incomplete or incorrectly reproduced reports, incorrect price information and editorial errors. Liability claims relating to material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the published information or by the use of incorrect or incomplete information are fundamentally excluded.

b) Exclusion of liability for CapTrader's own content

CapTrader has taken its own information in this marketing communication from sources believed to be reliable, but has not verified all such information itself. Accordingly, CapTrader makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Subsequent changes cannot be taken into account. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy shares of the issuer and is in no way a substitute for advice appropriate to the investor and the property. We cannot verify whether the information in the marketing communication is in line with your personal investment strategies and objectives. We recommend that you consult an investment advisor for advice that is appropriate to the investor and the property. The marketing communication cannot and should not replace a securities prospectus and/or expert investment advice required for an investment. It can therefore never be the sole basis for an investment decision. By accepting the marketing communication, the recipient accepts the binding nature of the above limitation of liability.

CapTrader provides the information despite careful procurement and provision only without guarantee for the correctness / completeness, timeliness or accuracy and availability of the stock exchange and economic information, prices, rates, indices, general market data, valuations, assessments and other accessible content held and displayed for retrieval. This also applies to third-party content. Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for any direct or indirect damage caused by and/or related to the distribution and/or use of this marketing communication.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information in this marketing communication if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Historical observations and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future developments. The facts presented in particular in connection with product information are for illustrative purposes only and do not permit any statements to be made about future profits or losses. Any conditions stated are to be understood as non-binding indications and are dependent on market developments on the day of conclusion.

CapTrader accepts no liability for direct or indirect damage caused by and/or in connection with the distribution and/or use.

The information, opinions and statements correspond to the status at the time of preparation of the marketing communication. They may be outdated due to future developments without the publication being changed.

CapTrader is not obliged to update, amend or supplement the information if a circumstance mentioned in this publication or a statement, estimate or forecast contained therein changes or becomes inaccurate. The presentation of the performance of financial instruments over previous periods does not provide a reliable indication of their future performance. No guarantee can therefore be given for the future price, value or income of any financial instrument mentioned in this publication.

Despite careful control of the content, we assume no liability for the content of external links. The operators of the linked pages are solely responsible for their content.

Distribution: This publication may only be distributed in accordance with the laws of the respective countries, and persons in possession of this publication should inform themselves about the applicable local regulations. The information contained herein is not intended for natural or legal persons who, due to their place of residence or business, are subject to a foreign legal system that imposes restrictions on the distribution of such information. The contents are therefore exclusively in German. In particular, this publication contains neither an offer nor an invitation to purchase securities to citizens of the USA, Great Britain and Australia.

Taxes: The tax treatment of financial instruments depends on the personal circumstances of the respective investor and may be subject to future changes, which may also have a retroactive effect.

Email:

info@captrader.com

Send e-mail

Phone:

Hotline (Germany)
0800-8723370

Hotline (International)
00800-08723370

Further contact options