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Nasdaq 100 defends 25,000 point mark

A price chart of the Nasdaq 100 with candles, a moving average line, shaded support zones and four red arrows indicating the bounce off important support levels near the 25,000 point mark during an uptrend.

Dear traders, dear stock market friends.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the past trading week with a loss of 0.2 %, closing only slightly down on the previous week. Over the course of the week, however, the technology index came under significant downward pressure at times before a clear countermovement set in on Friday evening.

Investors in fear mode

Market sentiment is currently characterized by extreme caution. CNN's "Fear & Greed Index" has fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, with a value of 22 points.

A meter shows a reading of 22, which means "Extreme Anxiety" on a scale from "Extreme Anxiety" to "Extreme Greed". This autosaved draft was last updated on November 14 at 6:59:54 PM ET.
CNN Fear and Greed Index

This indicates widespread concern among investors and signals that the market may be oversold. Historically, such phases of exaggerated negative sentiment can often be harbingers of a short-term market recovery. At the same time, bullish sentiment among US investors has also fallen over the past week and is now below the long-term average, underlining the general risk aversion.

AI sector briefly under pressure

The reason for the negative sentiment was a resurgence of concerns about the very high valuations of AI shares, which weighed on the entire technology sector. Leading companies such as Nvidia experienced a correction from their all-time highs, but were still only slightly down on the week or even managed to turn positive, which illustrates the “buy the dip mentality” that still exists.

At the same time, there were signs of sector shifts, with some investors moving from growth stocks to qualitatively more stable stocks such as the healthcare and energy sectors.

The focus in the new week is now very much on Nvidia's upcoming quarterly figures, which will be published on Wednesday (November 19, 2025) after the US stock market closes. Expectations are high and the figures and outlook from the chip giant could have a significant impact on sentiment in the entire AI sector and either provide new bullish impetus or further selling pressure.

Interest rate cut in December questionable

However, hopes of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December have cooled considerably in recent days. According to the CME Group's Fed Fund futures, the priced-in probability of a further rate cut has fallen to around 50 %, down from around 95 % in the previous month. 

An interest rate cut would generally provide a tailwind for high-growth technology and AI stocks in the Nasdaq 100, as lower financing costs and a falling discount rate would make the future cash flows of these companies more attractive. 

Accordingly, the markets are currently reacting sensitively to new US economic data and statements by Fed representatives that could provide clues as to the future course of interest rate and inflation policy. This uncertainty about the path of monetary policy has contributed significantly to the increased volatility in the Nasdaq 100 over the past two weeks.

Nasdaq 100 defends EMA 50 & lower Bollinger band

With all the short-term “fear news”, one thing should not be forgotten: The Nasdaq 100 as well as the entire US stock market are still in a clear bull market. Short-term corrections are completely normal and healthy for the trend, and initially no reason for uncertainty. On the contrary, they create new opportunities for traders who want to “play” the long-term uptrend. 

The Nasdaq 100 Index not only closed above the psychologically important and round 25,000-point mark on Friday, but was also able to defend the daily EMA 50 as well as the lower Bollinger band. Neither has been breached since the start of the rally in April and have established themselves as important support zones.

Line chart of the NSE index showing an uptrend, with several red arrows marking areas of price support along the green moving average line, similar to the technical patterns seen around the 25,000 point mark in the Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 Index daily chart with Bollinger Bands and EMA 50

The fact that the Nasdaq 100 has once again defended this support zone is a very promising signal in chart terms and increases the probability of a continuation of the trend to the upside. At least as long as the support is not breached in a bearish direction.

Reversal signals in the Nasdaq 100 Future

Before the markets opened and during the first few hours of trading last Friday, downward momentum still dominated. This can be seen particularly well when looking at the Nasdaq 100 Future (which trades almost around the clock). (This trades almost around the clock.) The daily candle has a long fuse on the downside. This means that during the day the bears initially dominated the action before a strong countermovement set in. The fact that this candlestick reversal signal was formed under significantly increased volume underpins the relevance of the signal and could be an indication for follow-up buying at the beginning of the new week.

A candlestick chart showing the prices of the NASDAQ 100 index with Bollinger bands, moving averages and volume bars; red arrows indicate a price decline and increased trading volume in this automatically saved draft.
Nasdaq 100 Future daily chart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 17.11.2025

A man with slicked-back hair and a trimmed beard, wearing a navy blue suit jacket and a white shirt, looks into the camera with a slight smile. Industrial background.
Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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