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Nasdaq 100 forecast & analysis: The correction is finally here

A stock market chart shows the Nasdaq 100 Index with candlestick patterns, moving averages, trading volume and RSI indicator. The chart spans from October 2023 to the end of July 2024 and includes an automatically saved draft for tracking changes.

Dear trader, dear stock market friends.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the past trading week with losses. The technology index is now trading 5.65 % below its all-time high and the correction picked up speed towards the end of the week. There was no real fundamental trigger for this. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were previously at clearly overbought levels, which is why the recent price declines came as little surprise and the overarching upward trend is in no way in danger at the moment.

Global chaos after IT problems

On Friday, there were massive IT problems in the USA, which had far-reaching consequences and led to technical problems all over the world. Among other things, air traffic had to be partially suspended, hospitals canceled operations and there were problems with payment transactions in various sectors. This was triggered by a bug in a software update from the company CrowdStrike, which is used in many companies to manage the security of Windows computers and servers. A total of 8.5 million Windows devices are said to have been affected.

CrowdStrike share slumps massively

CrowdStrike's share price plummeted after the software problems and their effects became known. CrowdStrike has a market capitalization of around USD 75 billion and is one of the top 50 companies in the Nasdaq 100. CrowdStrike shares have been one of the most successful cyber security stocks to date. The share price has quadrupled since the beginning of 2023. After the price slump on Friday and the declining prices on the days before, the stock is currently trading around 25 % below its all-time highs from the beginning of July.

CrowdStrike share daily chart

Short-term decision zone in the Nasdaq 100 at 19,400 - 19,500 points

Given the issues surrounding CrowdStrike and the IT problems, one might have expected greater uncertainty in the technology sector. The price decline of 0.9 % in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday was therefore comparatively moderate under these circumstances. There is a short-term support zone in the range of 19,400 - 19,500 points, which is generated by the horizontal support, the daily EMA 50 and the lower Bollinger band.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

If the support area does not hold, the correction could extend a little further. However, the next important support zones are at 18,900 points and around 18,350 points, which is why a bullish price reaction at one of these price areas is likely.

Nasdaq 100 Wochenchart

From a short-term trading perspective, it is either possible to wait for a rebound or a subordinate trend reversal in order to reopen long positions. On the other hand, short-covering strategies with options such as short puts or bull put spreads are interesting in this environment, particularly due to the rise in volatility in recent days.

Microsoft share in correction mode

The technology sector has been one of the driving forces behind the bull market this year and the Nasdaq 100 has shown relative strength against the broader market. The current correction may therefore represent an opportunity to enter the market when prices fall again. In addition to trades or investments at index level, it makes sense to take a closer look at the individual shares of the Nasdaq 100 and keep an eye out for interesting set-ups. Microsoft shares, for example, are also undergoing a correction and are currently testing the support area at USD 425-430.

Microsoft share weekly chart.

Second chance with Nvidia?

Another interesting setup can be found in Nvidia, one of the most successful AI stocks this year. Due to the enormous momentum, there have only been a few opportunities here in recent months to find an entry point with an attractive risk/reward ratio after a correction. The Nvidia share is also currently undergoing a correction and has tested the daily EMA 50 in recent days. If this support area holds and there is no further downward pressure from the broad market, the chances of a continuation of the upward trend are not bad. If the support area is broken in a bearish direction, the correction could pick up speed again in the short term. In this scenario, however, opportunities for medium to long-term investments and possibly a "falling knife" would soon present themselves again.

Nvidia share daily chart

Author: Tobias Schmid
Date: 22.07.2024

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Tobias Schmid

Tobias Schmid has been a trader and analyst since 2008 and specializes in trading futures options and equity options. His strategies and analysis methods are based on a combination of technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment analysis. Tobias Schmid is also the founder of Fomo Financea financial website for active traders, investors and options traders.

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